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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kent Sarikaya who wrote (2006)	6/12/1998 11:02:00 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 2754

This has been a week where blood and guts strewn all over the floor (of the semi-equips that is)reigns supreme. The group is down another 11 percent this week, that makes it 7 weeks in a row. It seems like the group is just getting wound up and in the groove on the slide to oblivion. One stock went up and 40 went down - down - down. ONE 06/05/98 06/12/98 WEEK CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT SYMBOL COMPANY PRICE PRICE CHANGE ATMI ATMI Inc 15.06 16.25 8 TGAL Tegal 3.88 3.81 -2 AMAT Applied Materials 29.63 28.69 -3 UTEK Ultratech Stepper 20.50 19.75 -4 HELX Helix Technology 16.94 16.25 -4 WJ Watkins Johnson 25.56 24.50 -4 LTXX LTX 3.69 3.53 -4 NANO Nanometrics 8.63 8.25 -4 IMSC Integrated Measurement Systems 9.44 8.88 -6 KLIC Kulicke & Soffa Industries 17.06 15.88 -7 CMOS Credence Systems 19.75 18.25 -8 CFMT CFM Technologies 9.75 9.00 -8 EGLS Electroglas 13.56 12.50 -8 PHTN Photon Dynamics 3.81 3.50 -8 TER Teradyne 28.44 26.00 -9 LRCX Lam Research 22.50 20.56 -9 ASEC Aseco 4.38 4.00 -9 SFAM SpeedFAM 20.13 18.38 -9 KLAC KLA Instruments 27.63 24.94 -10 ETEC Etec System 37.00 33.38 -10 SVGI Silicon Valley Group 18.25 16.44 -10 MTSN Mattson Technology 6.31 5.66 -10 MASK Align-Rite International 16.50 14.75 -11 VECO Veeco Instruments 26.88 24.00 -11 IPEC Integrated Process Equipment 13.00 11.44 -12 BRKS Brooks Automation 13.56 11.88 -12 NVLS Novellus Systems 35.88 31.25 -13 SMTL Semitool 10.63 9.25 -13 FSII FSI International 11.00 9.50 -14 COHU Cohu 29.50 24.88 -16 ASYT Asyst Technologies 16.38 13.78 -16 SFLX Smartflex Systems 8.38 7.00 -16 AFLX Adflex Solutions 11.00 9.13 -17 PLAB Photronics 24.75 20.50 -17 CYMI Cymer 18.13 15.00 -17 PRIA Pri Automation 17.31 14.31 -17 ASMLF ASM Lithography Holdings 35.25 29.13 -17 MICN Micrion 8.63 7.13 -17 GSNX Gasonics 10.25 8.44 -18 DPMI Dupont Photomasks 40.88 32.50 -20 WFR MEMC Electronic Materials 13.25 10.00 -25 TOTALS 723 642 -11

To: Kent Sarikaya who wrote (2006)	6/14/1998 2:26:00 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2754

Kent, Thanks for your reference to the article in the Wall Street Digest. I went all the way through it including his prediction # 8. This is one prediction we would all like to see come true, but while it may happen by the end of the year, it seems very optimistic to me. Presently, there is a tremendous amount of damage being done to the semiconductor industry in terms of falling stock prices. As of Friday, semiconductor stocks are still in a "free fall". I looked at the SOX--X, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, to establish a "fix" on the present situation. On Friday, 6/12, SOX closed at 235.62. On 5/14, SOX closed at 307.17. In less than 1 month the SOX is down 23 percent. If anything, the losses in the last few days have been steeper than at the beginning of the period. The last time SOX closed below Friday's close was 11/26/96, 18 months ago, at 233.53. What is going to happen in the near future, I don't pretend to know, but a lot of damage has been done and more may be in the offing. Even assuming the SOX stabilizes in the near future, a "basing" period usually is required to establish a baseline from which a rally can be mounted. This baseline usually lasts for an appreciable period of time. Can this all happen in the next 6 months? I am doubtful considering the fact that the last week has seen Japan, the worlds #2 economy, tumble into recession. It's not obvious that Japan has figured out what to do about their situation. Until they do, the rest of Asia isn't going to recover - it could easily get worse before it gets better. As I have said before, I first bought FSII at 13 in June of 96, slightly over 2 years ago. It closed Friday at 9.50, a paper loss for the moment of 27 percent. FSII could well sink much lower before it goes higher. Some of the stats on the stock are still much worse than other stocks which have been going down. According to DailyStocks, FSII's estimated earnings for the year closing Aug 98 is -0.20/share and closing Aug 99 is 0.55/share. That's nothing to write home to Mother about. Getting back to Wall Street Digest's prediction of a booming rally by the end of the year - I won't be holding my breath! We can compare notes on 1 Jan - I hope we are both richer by then. Have a good day! Don W.