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To: RFF who wrote (12986)	6/12/1998 9:31:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 25814

(np) Yes it is - we are reaching big time capitulation now. A few weeks ago - everything was on low volume. Now everything is on high volume and tanking fast and heavy on any disappointments. That tells me large time dumping from mutt funds re: semis/semiequips or in fact anything with substantial Asian exposure. They don't want these to show up in their end of quarter statements. Plus I'm sure the asset allocators' computer models are all saying in flickering bold red FLIGHT TO SAFETY FLIGHT TO SAFETY blah blah blah. That means the lows are right round the corner. A while back, after Merced, I said the lows should be coming within the next week to 6 weeks. Now we shall see. (I also said the correction was over n/t on last Friday. Oops! I think what has happened is not so much Greenspan, bonds, whatever but China. Any and I mean any sense of devaluation there and then we are dead. Because if you rememeber around Dec. when the stocks plunged China was the last hope. So theoretically now that China is going to devalue and soon to be followed by the other countries there, no one will be buying tech goods or capital equipment goods because they just became outrageously expensive... hard times for all without a doubt... FWIW Briefing said you can take it to the bank that the correction is over a couple of days ago figuring that the bad news was in the stocks - talk about signalling the next downturn - they just did...) Anyway like I said we are now having big-time capitulation. The blood in the semi-equips is now I guess at 55% and falling - soon it will be time to invest. Note that STM says things are still pretty decent (but remember STM does a lot of generic stuff as well - mainly to Europe I think so they may be ok here as well), LSI says business is good, IBM investing 100 million in DSP cores - the fundamentals of SOC are intact and likely the wisdom of being non-generic and very high end will be validated i/t - s/t it could be ugly. This could be disaster day #4 for the techs from the looks of it - easy -25 points from the looks of it - or at least bad news for the SOXy... Shane