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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (3650)	6/12/1998 11:25:00 AM
From: Pierre-X	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Re: Ultra-cheap HDD You said: My point is that the Disk Trend report totally discounts the need for ultra cheap sub 2 gig drives. That's an interesting point. If you look at the per MB pricing across capacities: (my off-the-cuff approximations) Capacity(GB) Price $/MB 2.1 $100 0.048 3.2 $120 0.038 4.3 $140 0.033 6.4 $220 0.034 8.4 $270 0.032 Notice how the cost/MB flattens quickly. Cheap hard disks are, on a unit basis, expensive. If a new hard disk design could specifically reduce production cost for low capacities to be unit-competitive i.e. down to 3 cents per meg => $50 hard disks (including interface logic) I think a lot of devices would start building them in. Think about Sony Playstations and Nintendos for starters. That's a razor/razor blade business where the console has to be cheap cheap cheap. No room for $100 HDD, but there might be room for a $40-$50 HDD. Heck, I just bought a $40 flash card for my Sony Playstation, and I would guess it only holds 8MB -- and is slow as sh** to boot. Every time I access the thing I wish the Sony had a HDD. <g> Think about the FCC ruling mandating retail sales of cable set tops. Think about the growing embedded logic industry and Internet tendrils beginning to make their way into heretofore undiscovered territory. Nothing like a little computing power and bandwidth to awaken the hunger for local storage. God bless, PX

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (3650)	6/12/1998 1:19:00 PM
From: Chuck Bleakney	Respond to of 9256

I don't know... You need to consider what else it takes to build a drive besides the heads and media. Typically today this is a machined aluminum casting, drive motor and electronics. Using a stamped case would save some cost but add design and consistent manufacture challenges, using molded plastic is a possibility but the out gassing will significantly reduce the MTBF of such a design... A casting using powdered metal is probably a good candidate but I don't think the materials on that process are inexpensive enough yet. Ceramics? Tolerances and durability may be an issue. The electronics will get to the point where it's all on one chip, at least for a baseline product... it's just a matter of time. But the reality is that I don't see how it can get a whole lot cheaper than it already is without a basic shift somewhere. The individual component designs are already very efficient. Chuck

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (3650)	6/15/1998 2:55:00 AM
From: Alan Hume	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Hi Mark, -Late Reply- you mention the possible requirement for a $35 HDD, and your logic is quite correct. I am frankly disappointed at the sluggish performance of all on the HDD manufacturers. The <$1000 PC has been with us for a year at least now, and the trend is towards $500. Because of this amongst other things, the HDD manufacturers are under immense price pressure. Why, because they have to date failed to come up with product that was designed to to be manufactured and sold (with profit) at $05 per meg. They are all bleeding because they are selling products that were designed for far higher ASP's. The phrase "time to market" can always be found in their quarterly reports, but now 12 months have passed and I have not noticed a single new product from the big 4 designed for the slot where the bulk of the market is. Disclaimers more than welcome Alan