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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: peter grossman who wrote (3280)	6/12/1998 1:05:00 PM
From: Ronald Paul	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10309

I fully agree with you. Besides the MSFT noise making, other external factors such as the Asian economies and investor jitters over lower earnings as a result seem to apply a negative synergy to WIND's stock. I think that regardless of how well WIND does in the next 12 months that investors will continue to trash the stock however. Time and again, MSFT admits (as Abelman pointed out as well) that the threat does not extend well into the deeply embedded space - WIND's sweet spot. Steve Ballmer's recent upchucking about embedded NT and how this third party will provide some way of force fitting NT into the embedded space is the greatest bit of hogwash to come from MSFT. Even with their backpeddling about how it doesn't apply to WIND's core, as well as Abelman pointing out how limitted MSFT's initiative will have on WIND, all these facts will continue as they do now, to fall on deaf ears because of perception which always has and continues to rule the roost on Wallstreet. These developments really illustrate how value is determined by the broader market when they have just a surface understanding of the RTOS segment. That is why I would be surprized if WIND stock performs at all anytime before MSFT finally ships their new embedded junk. Indeed, when MSFT ships, you can count on it trashing WIND stock bigtime before it gets better. MSFT already says that the timing is about 12 to 18 months out. It will be some time after that before investors are clued into what BS this MSFT initiative is. Just my $0.02 Ronald

To: peter grossman who wrote (3280)	6/12/1998 8:48:00 PM
From: Joe Smith	Respond to of 10309

As much as this may seem weird to some these days, maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I do not think that TA factors arise out of a vacuum. There are usually fundamental factors that cause upturns and downturns. TA just tracks the response to these factors. IT's kind of like tracking the symptoms of a disease to gauge the health of a sick person. TA just gauges symptoms in terms of the response of the market to a company's health. If the market perceives an illness, it sends a stock on a ride that TA can predict. Things will look bad until things turn around and start looking good. TA does a great job of predicting a continued slide or a continued upturn, but I think that it is poorer at predicting turnarounds. I didn't see any TA on this thread predicting a downturn at 47.75. I also saw no TA that could have predicted the huge swing last Spring from 36 to 19 to 48. TA is also quite good at predicting a slide when the downturn is due to actual problems with health. If the company is really suffering TA will see the pressure this causes on a stock and we can predict the likely results of that pressure. If someone has bad symptoms we can predict their health problems based on these symptoms quite easily if they are suffering from a serious disease. But what if the symptoms are overblown or results of hypochondria. The patient will continue to thrive despite his/her symptoms an probably sooner or later reality will set in. In sum, I think that it is quite dangerous to judge and predict health and growth from symptomology alone. Has the company really lost one third of its value in the last year? Did it really lose half it's value last year and then more than double? These were just symptoms caused by some underlying anxiety, but the health of the company has remained remarkably constant. It just goes to show you that no matter how conservatively Dick Kraber manages the earnings, Wall St. will still take a company like this for some wild rides.