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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (4467)	6/12/1998 1:03:00 PM
From: Michael Sphar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Mike, Let me speak to a couple issues brought up in the last 50 posts or so. Firstly, I consider your efforts of posting warnings valuable in the extreme! Please do not even consider stopping. I would rather enroll in an Evelyn Wood Speed Reading course than miss these. Speaking from within the tech sector, I see the battle of DRAM mfgers as essentially one of a nationalistic proxy. As you alluded in your comments of sympathetic feelings towards Micron, I believe this is a nationalistic feeling on your part. I respect your feelings. However, I remember this same sort of battle well, back in the 70s and early 80s, when many more US tech companies built DRAMs albeit of much lower densities. Then as now there was a nationalistic component, as the newly emergent Japanese DRAM fabbers were taking business away from companies like Fairchild, Intel, National, TI, Mostek and the like. In long term hindsight, the lack of US government subsidy was healthy. The US based companies looked at their prospects and walked away from the business finding new markets to compete within. That lowered DRAM supply on the market, and it became healthy again for a while. Today its different. Companies like Samsung and Hyundai in Korea have been beneficiaries of governmentally orchestrated efforts to promote that industry locally. Same with Japan. The problem once again is one of supply. Now however there are Korean, Japanese, American, Taiwanese, and German manufacturers of DRAMs all vying for the market, and again too much supply. More efficient use of older fabs and 300mm tech will only exacerbate this problem. Until some of these suppliers go belly up and move on, there will be no fix to the supply side. But its now a nationalistic political arena not just corporate bottom lines where the battle is taking place. One example, Japan is now caught on the pincers of IMF rescue efforts in Korea and US non-intervention policy regarding the fall of the yen. Multi-national economic warfare rages, don your flak jackets gentlemen.

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (4467)	6/12/1998 1:32:00 PM
From: Ron Struthers	Respond to of 9980

Hello Mike and all, I have been commenting on Asia and the markets for some time in my newsletter. I just uploaded these sections of the newsletter from February to june on my web site. You may find of interest. Click on DJI Titanic under Market Updates or this link should take you direct sentex.net Ron

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (4467)	6/12/1998 1:40:00 PM
From: see clearly now	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

" I see you asked about investing in "China." I would say in a heartbeat(IMHO), it's too soon. The don't even let foreigners buy the best companies. We are downgraded to "Class B" shares." ...Yes, but there are companies run by Chinese expatriates from all over the world who are adept at investing in their "home land". I realize the time is not yet but once Betz's scenario runs though then maybe that's where the real bargains and the future in Asia are. If you find a good fund run by Chinese with a choice long term investment strategy for China..let me know. For what it is worth I have been privy to meetings with Mayors of large Chinese cities one of whom is now Premier and they are brilliant..now that they are on a free enterprise migration path...just watch them go....The Japanese are proving their inherent weakness in leadership..inability for horizontal thinking.(including too many Lawyers?).This is not true of the Chinese I have met in China or elsewhere..(30% of the people in Vancouver near where I operate are Chinese). If we are in a political-economy sea change it will affect everything including everyone's bottom line!