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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (20269)	6/12/1998 2:39:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

i'm a buyer because i like the valuation and i smell a panic selloff. nothing has changed in 6-9 months that is not apparent. japan sucks, really-no sh-- their stock market and econmy is disasterfor a while now. i think its bullish japan is reaaly getting hit because now they ADMIT they have problem and withh the doller way overvalued to the yen it will shock them into doing something drastic for the econmy. regarding eps. everybody pre announced last quarter if you rememer and the stock rallyied because wall street is long term investors but in reality they are not. my point as nsm and others stated at worst the the october quarter will be as good or better than july quarter. the stocks have discounted in my opinion to reflect pretty bad news and anything slightly positive, a buyback-merger-allright numbers, we will rally hard-these stocks are getting hit but nothing really has changed except people are panick selling. but, the reality it could worsr in stock price because you might have some downgrades but its a good time to enter a position. their lot of people that were like at 30 i'll buy then it hits 27 and now they will wait to 22 and people do that on the sell side and ity hurts them.

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (20269)	6/12/1998 3:29:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

eugene: re: "sunny outlook": I intend to buy big long before the outlook is sunny. I just want a few breaks in the clouds, and the weatherman to give some reassurance that the tropical storm isn't being upgraded to a hurricane. Clearly, the asian mess is not behind us. We just learned that Taiwan, too, is in trouble, and their financing is the best in the region, better than Japan's. We have another round of competitive devaluations to come, including the yuan. The recession in Japan (official now) will spread to the rest of the region. Japan's banks have yet to be restructured, and the unknown many many billions of bad debt have yet to be written off, or even fully counted. Analysts are still downgrading. Semi companies who had said that the second half of 98 would be better are now not so sure. Intel has said, clearly and repeatedly, that they see an upturn in the second half of 1998. Looking at what their options are selling for, it appears the market doesn't believe tham. I think (guess) AMAT will end this downward step at about 20-25, and establish a new trading range. On my "stages of despair" scale, we'll then be at step D, one step above capitulation. See you there, hopefully with cash in hand, to take advantage of this rare opportunity.