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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (5819)	6/15/1998 2:43:00 AM
From: Czechsinthemail	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Katherine, Until fairly recently, the conventional wisdom was that semi companies needed to invest in DUV equipment to maintain a competitive edge. Whether to increase market share or to remain competitive with other companies, it was expected that companies would make pretty heavy investments in DUV equipment. Now, that view seems to be shifting to a prevailing view that DUV and semi equip sales generally will be slower primarily because of the Asian weakness. I suppose my question is whether there is likely to be enough market demand in Europe and North America to warrant increases in Asian capital investment in semi-equipment. The idea would be that the return on investment and/or the increase in market share would be sufficiently high to justify the additional capital outlays. My sense is that the prevailing opinion seems to be that there won't be -- at least in the short run. But it is hard for me to imagine domestic U.S. earnings growth of 13% in the 3Q and 18% in 4Q (as some are forecasting) without some significant demand for semiconductors. Baird