To: andy kelly who wrote (20296 ) 6/12/1998 6:21:00 PM From: jtechkid Read Replies (2) | Respond to
first, their has been bad news in this group for six months the only different is stocks are down. first, semi's way oversold and aki ,ect. don't you think you and 100billion dollers are waiting to buy these group because belief that the upside is a great ride. don;'t forget their have been billions of dollers made in this group and smart money is buying. what has change?semi's stocks are getting killed-i shorted amat a couple months ago at 39 and today bought stock around 26. also, aki and teri and the rest of the group nobody has ever correctly forecasted the direction of semi industry in my history. also, overeaction -interest are low, inflation is tame and the world econonmy is not as bad as people think . one example, california-most important tech export in the NA-WELL FIRST QUARTER asia exports were down by 12% but first quarter exports rose6% because of strength in canada, latin america, europe. also, amat is gaining marketshare and is the bellweather for the group and a must own at SOME POINT for institutions. as i stated, the bottom is this month because of the pre announcement nervousness. first, LSCC GOT HIT NOT because they missed the street but on concern they were losing mktshare to competitors. ASMLF, GOT smoked because of the high valuation and the simple fact they were not honest with wall street and they got pounded. i think it was smart to initiate a position because i was worried when i was short that investors have been so rewarded by amat in the past that they would not let it get destroyed.i think amat over 100 by 2000 and i believe wil lbe 37 by august on a runup before the numbers.
