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Gold/Mining/Energy : HRP.T Harbour Petro -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brian Diggle who wrote (46)	6/12/1998 9:51:00 PM
From: Richard Saunders	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 62

Brian/ this is half-baked, you hold a position and I don't. Your question - is 700 boepd worth $9mil.? Look at what the recent acquisitions appear to have been going for and I think for argument's sake you can say a ballpark figure of $15,000 per flowing barrel of daily production is "ballpark reasonable." As with any purchase, etc. it does depend on specifics so it is a bit goofy to make firm assumptions. Bottomline is that it depends on the product and the operating costs that are associated with the field (imo, remember I'm just a bumbling individual piker). About a year ago some royalty trusts were paying upwards of $30K per flowing boepd production. Watch what happens (it's already happening....) to some of those trusts and be happy you didn't buy shares a year ago when the bandwagon was loading up with lots of willing buyers. Harbour's financials and annual are in the back of the filing cabinet here and that's where they're going to stay because personally I no longer have a position. You might want to take a look and try and get a better idea of what Harbour's production profile currently is. ie. mostly sweet gas? any sour stuff or heavier oil? If you find that all that's left is mostly sweet gas that's close to gasplants then I also suspect the $15K number floated above will be a bit low. If there's some h2s stuff or some heavier grades of liquids then maybe the number is high........ Compare that to any firm assets (ie. interests in production plants, undeveloped acreages, etc.) and also have a look to see how any debt or future obligations are going to potentially take cash from the picture. That might give you a little bit better idea of "is it worth it or not"......... Not trying to be flippant here and apologies if this sounds that way but I can't remember if you were the one who said you were "long 3000" re: harbour. If you are and if there's such a concern then maybe some different questions need to be asked too......... Everyone has to start somewhere but for little jrs. such a the Harbour genre it might be an idea to try and hold a basket of 6 or 7 situations where you're "long 3000" so that if one little egg cracks hopefully another well placed egg can hatch and make up for it. Don't feel bad though, even some of the reputable stock pickers have egg on their faces re: this stock. Personally I was fortunate to eke a small gain but presently my mug is plastered with omellette.......... Happy hunting.

To: Brian Diggle who wrote (46)	6/17/1998 1:29:00 AM
From: Richard Saunders	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 62

offtopic/ Brian - valuation related.... some more numbers for comparison sake. Canrise Resources (CRE-tse) is currently doing around 4200 boepd with approx. 95% nat. gas & Natural gas liquids. Poco Petroleums (POC-tse) has just proposed a paper acquisition to takeover Canrise. The assumed value of the deal based on POC's then price of $13.80 (price eased today) is $134.6mil. The total price (totally in paper) works out to approx. $32K/flowing barrel of equivalent production using the 4200 boepd number. The indicated value of acquisition works out (on purely paper basis, no cash.....) to $0.93/mcf for proven gas reserves, $0.77/mcf for proven plus 1/2 probable reserves and $0.63/mcf for proven plus probable reserves. In Poco's instance the spin seems to be that many of Canrise properties are adjacent and in some instances joint ventures to/with Poco so possibly a "higher" paper price is being proposed. Anyways, just another way at looking at recent acquisition action in the oilpatch - there's going to be more (imo) too.......... Poco/Canrise conference call is currently available at (800) 558-5253 Access Code 4421482# Happy hunting.