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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pierre-X who wrote (3957)	6/12/1998 11:13:00 PM
From: Frank Sheridan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

Good analysis - FYI I was including expected sales of Banshee in my question, which is why I said 25% TDFX penetration by this Christmas instead of saying VooDoo2. Also, I'm seeing a definite pattern here from TDFX, namely release a full bore 3D product (Voodoo, VooDoo2) followed by a combination 2D/3D product (Rush, Banshee). So, I expect VooDoo3 to carry the torch starting early next year, probably followed by Banshee2. The question is, will there be enough of a difference between VooDoo3 and Banshee so that anyone other than the most elite of the hard core gamers will care about it? One problem with the VooDoo2 being so good is where do you go from here? Sure, you can rack up numbers and frame rates, but at what point will there be enough of a perceived improvement so that someone who has a VooDoo2 will want to upgrade to a VooDoo3? The alternative for TDFX is to simply make a combo 2D/3D chip that can maintain the technology leadership that they currently enjoy in the 3D market while providing best-of-class 2D performance. Personally, I'm not expecting there to be a VooDoo4 or its equivalent. The good news through all of this is that I expect the Banshee to be so good and so desirable that it ends up being built into lots and lots of PC's. Thanks for your input. Regards.

To: Pierre-X who wrote (3957)	6/13/1998 10:43:00 AM
From: Yakov Lurye	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

[Back of the envelope calculations] Pierre, Your calculations do not necessarily describe the best case scenario: 1) Last quarter gross margin was 51%. With increased production volumes, better yields should be achievable, so GM should go up this quarter. 2) Large portion of SG&A costs is fixed, I would expect SG&A to go down as the percentage of revenues 3)R&D expenses are a big unknown, but at this point in development cycle there are no reasons to expect R&D spending growth to exceed revenue growth. Current R&D spending level (11.6% of revenues) seems to be high compared with the industry leaders (which in itself is good), Banshee development is nearing completion. Granted, the number of employees had grown from 35 to 170 in a year, but I have no idea how this hiring is devided between R&D and SG&A. Even a modest 10% increase in shipments should generate another 2.5M in revenues that would cover a 40% increase in R&D budget or 15% increase in R&D+SG&A spending. Everybody seems to think that Voodo continued to sell well through the last 3 months, so chances are good that this Q pre-tax income will exceed the 18% previous quarter level. Regards, Y.