To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (2009 ) 6/13/1998 1:59:00 AM From: Kent Sarikaya Respond to of 2754
Don, thanks again for the great data. I hate to say this but seeing all but one company go down this week, made the AFLX drop seem not as bad. Something to make you feel good. Take a good look at a long term chart of AMAT, KLIC and even AFLX, about 5 years in length. They don't stay at the bottom too long and they climb quickly. Look for a big move up starting from October to November somewhere. When almost 99% of the companies tracked are beat up this bad, if that doesn't signal we are near the bottom I don't what will. Do you remember the last big run in techs aross the board over 3years ago now? During that rush, it was technology that kept the averages climbing and the big caps weren't doing so well. I should know I was sitting on WalMart, probably the only 2 year period were it was dead. I could only hope of getting into techs. I got in techs and the bear market for techs started. I have been trying to fight the trend, but no way. Well, now it is going to be time when the techs rally and the big caps flounder. The techs will keep the averages climbing once again. I know we have been saying, oh another 3 to 6 months, but this time it is going to happen. I think many pundits and analysts already made up their minds to it and they direct where the money goes. I look for a good size correction before it all happens before mid to late fall and then the techs will start getting purchased big time. I hate to say this but I don't think techs will do much till then and maybe even take those that haven't it rock bottom yet to it by then. Also if you notice almost all the news coming out on techs is very negative even for next year. Yes i am sure many companies won't be in full swing in earnings, but just like some of the performers we have seen the last couple of years, it won't matter. Earnings are secondary compared to sector trends and market group behaviour. I hope we are all profitable soon. It's always darkest before dawn:)