Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (20259)	6/13/1998 1:21:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bonnie, I just relocated back to Texas from Belmont Ca. in Nov 1996. Wife followed after four months. Had to help transition her Studios to new GM. Housing prices had never recovered completely from the eighties fall. Lot of changes were beginning to happen in CA. The middle class seemed less than happy. This was showing up in some liberal laws falling to the way side. Some of my high tech neighbors were leaving the state at that time. Very interesting to read your post about the out placement services being booked! Have been expecting the SEA downturn to be realized first in California. In Houston during the 80's Oil business downturn...whole neighborhoods were vacant with for sale signs, I hope CA. is not in for that! The ones to loose their jobs first where the lucky ones, they had a chance to sell their house and move on. Regards, LG

To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (20259)	6/13/1998 1:43:00 AM
From: Investor-ex!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bonnie, Thanks for the regional tidbits. IYO, when can we expect to hear about a CA downturn on the nightly news? I, for one, am very much interested in hearing how the employment situation develops down in Silly Valley. How are the want ads doing -- up, down, flat, turning?

To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (20259)	6/13/1998 3:23:00 AM
From: Kona	Respond to of 94695

Bonnie Bear, I like the Peter Lynch method, take a walk around the neighborhood (with your eyes open if possible). I go back and forth between several buildings in San Francisco and every time I see a UPS van I peek inside and see what they're delivering. For months, tons of PC boxes ( Usually DELL, used to see the occasional Gateway). Lately no PC's. So I started dropping by the place in our building where they put the empty PC boxes ( again usually Dell ) and nothing for a while. Hmmmmm.

To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (20259)	6/13/1998 10:41:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hello Bonnie; Thank you for the insights. I didn't know a thing about the 15th of the month skew in interest rates , but it makes sense. I've been worried for some time about when unemployment might show its ugly head. I fear that waiting on the official figures to filter down to us will put us behind the curve. I noticed in the last two years many smaller companies who never before did so , have gotten retirement plans in place; all that helps push more money at the mutual funds too. So far the oil drilling sector is still going strong ( I would not put money in it ) many of the projects already underway will be completed. I have heard of only one cancellation so far. But I expect with the low oil prices to see layoffs as current projects complete. While the hawks worry about labor cost and to much employment, I worry of the backlash when it falls. Above all, the key to this booming market is the money flow into retirement funds. This bounce we had Friday was not real wide spread , I could sense it was the computer trading programs that kicked in. And it was in the more liquid stocks. A good sign in one sense as they had been giving up so much ground that the most liquid part of the market was looking critical. In our system Money flows uphill, not down hill. The hawks would like to get us back to the trickle down economy they had us in not all that long ago. For some reason relatively speaking they feel more secure when the peons are fighting one another for jobs. --------------------- The reality of it all is simple. There is no real wealth but the labor of man. Were the mountains of gold and the valleys of silver, the world would not be one grain of corn the richer; nor one comfort would be added to the human race. :Percy Bysshe Shelly (1792 - 1822, English writer ) -------------------- Kill Labor and you kill the economy, the right wing hawks fears of wages causing inflation are over blown. They don't pick on the profit levels insurance companies, banks , drug companies, and such make, which at time exceeds the payroll. I would like to have a look at just how much profit GM recorded in the last two years and compare it to how much they paid for the labor. ------------------------- In spite of our booming economy the disparity between the poor and the very rich still grows. Over time that disparity produces discontent and the middle class suffers with more taxes to build more prisons. --------------------------- But that's enough of my ranting, as for the market, I do think we need to keep an ear to the ground for large layoffs, and early retirement type programs, that will stifle the inflows into mutual funds with the last one perhaps causing a draw down. The hawks wanting to put S.S. into the market also looks suspect to me, and like an act of desperation. Jim