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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (20311)	6/13/1998 2:10:00 AM
From: fred woodall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

<<Does anyone know who still has a "strong buy">> Gruntal This week: Morgan Stanley cuts to outperform from strong buy ABN AMRO cuts to hold from buy

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (20311)	6/13/1998 10:54:00 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, during last qtr's earnings releases, practically every semi-eq company described the business outlook for 1998 as unpredictable. A few months later, it is clearer that companies like AMAT, which has almost 50% dependency on Asian customers are going to be suffering. My original guess was either a yen or RMB devaluation would mark the bottom of the Asian crisis. Now that the yen has started its descend, I am trying to determine whether that is a net positive or negative to Japan's biggest problem, the banking sector. In either case, we will all know the chain reaction to other ailing Asian economies in the next couple of months. This does not bode well for AMAT. My latest concern is Y2K. Not that I believe the world is coming to an end but based on what I have read to date, Asia had been too preoccupied with their economic woes that little attention had been paid to this subject. Just when their economies may be recovering, the Y2K problem may hit them in a manner that capital improvement projects would be the last thing on their mind. This is on top of what may be severely drained resources not remotely adequate to disembark on these billion dollar fabs. The last hope being major cash infusion from US companies, buying or forming JVs to take advantage of much cheaper costs in the region. There is a reasonable chance that by 1999, US companies may also be drained by the same issues. Earnings estimates, not faulting any company or analyst, have never been as unreliable as they are now. $1.00 for 1999 can easily be $0 or less if any of the above scenario is true. What if the semi conductor industry simply remains status quo for a couple of years? Capacity seems to be plentiful for indefinite periods. Are there any real need to make the next faster, smaller and better chip? Can some tech expert help me with some answers? Ramsey