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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (17357)	6/13/1998 11:53:00 AM
From: Steve Porter	Respond to of 45548

All: Does everyone see how far around the board theese anlysts expectations are. It will be hard for COMS to meet all of them, but it will be even harder to disappoint on all of them. Let's pick the lowest estimate from teh ANALysts as the official estimate and start hyping it as the number on the floor so that COMS can roast it ;-) Steve

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (17357)	6/13/1998 8:38:00 PM
From: Wigglesworth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

3Com to take extraordinary charge against profits (if any) this quarter! Found this on Barron's. My source says Benhamou's setting up a special relief fund for shareholders: Last week Mr. Greenberg [chairman of Bear Stearns] gave $1 million to purchase Viagra for impecunious elderly men unable to pay for their own prescriptions for the impotence pill. In the wink of an eye, the extraordinarily generous gesture propagated a rumor, which we have not been able to verify, that the destitute recipients were once affluent customers of Bear Stearns, fallen on hard times by faithfully following the firm's stock recommendations.

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (17357)	6/13/1998 9:19:00 PM
From: joe	Respond to of 45548

Partial response to Steve Porter...OK, here's a first attempt at giving new meaning to these ANALysts estimates: 1) First Call has had it's estimate for Fiscal '98 at .69c for at least a few months. It's had it's 4th quarter estimate at .18c for a looong time. Every time we get an earnings revision report by Glenn, the research broker is going from an old/high number to a newer/lower number which is more in line with First Call. Why is it that First Call hasn't changed and some others have changed. And why have they waited months after First Call? IMO, many of these ANALysts have taken too long to do so. Maybe part of the reason is instances like this: -- 4th quarter estimate revision by Prudential -- .76 to .65 Note how yesterday, before options week friday was their choice of date to announce revision to the public (recall that yesterday this was posted on the thread and on Brief.com). How convenient their timing. For one thing, the stock had already dropped $2-3 in the previous 2 days (and another $1 that very morning). Prudential put out the info around mid afternoon, I think, when they could see a possible late afternoon rebound rally. This tells me that Prudential is VERY INTERESTED in seeing the stock drop MORE. Isn't a $2-4 drop in the previous few days, which is equivalent to greater than 10% drop enough to justify their estimate revision??? Not to mention a 30+% drop in the last few weeks or more. So after COMS is HUGELY BEAT UP, Prudential just adds more to the fire, by trying it's best to keep it down. Lesson: Remember folk, ANALyst don't work for us, they work for their clients; getting them in and out at convenient time. The more an ANALyst can move the market, the more value he is to his clients.

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (17357)	6/13/1998 9:26:00 PM
From: joe	Respond to of 45548

Another point about these ANALyst estimate revisions. Let's assume that we actually believe the numbers they spew out. Almost every one of them has a 100% increase in earnings from fiscal '98 to fiscal '99. Remember now, those '99 estimates have already been chopped by 50-100% from the '99 estimates from the beginning of this year. Even they can see some big improvement happening later in the year. Maybe they're saying, "everybody jump ship as soon as possible, and in a few more quarters, make sure you come on in so you don't miss the ride of your life." I wonder how many fish they've caught with this one.

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (17357)	6/13/1998 9:38:00 PM
From: joe	Respond to of 45548

More on ANALyst: ...this is from the YAHOO! site (possiby Zack's research) Number of brokers Months ago recommending as: 0 1 2 3 ---------------- --- --- --- --- Strong Buy 8 8 9 10 Moderate Buy 13 13 12 10 Hold 14 14 13 14 Moderate Sell 0 0 0 0 Strong Sell 0 0 0 0 --- --- --- --- 2.11 2.11 2.06 2.06 Mean* *(strong buy)1.00 - 5.00(strong sell) Some observations: 1) Hardly any change from 3 months ago 2) NO change in the last month, but we still got a 30%+ correction in the last month 3) I would think that from the numerous earnings revisions (from Glenn's postings), being of such large magnitude, that we would have more change in the above stats. 4) Since there aren't hardly any changes above, it is possible that most analysts have revised their earnings forecasts only slightly...not enough to change the position on their stock. CONCLUSION: ANALyst say whatever is convenient to them, so take them with a grain of salt. We just don't know the whole picture. With the absence of any guidance from COMS (except for press releases), the stock price has been easily jerked around by lots of 'other elements'.