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Strategies & Market Trends : Bosco & Crossy's stock picks,talk area -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas Frank who wrote (2779)	6/13/1998 1:16:00 PM
From: Thomas Frank	Respond to of 37387

Found this on another thread--Makes for interesting reading << By Eric Lake Where is the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) going in the next two years? By comparing the 1994-97 Dow with that of 1924-27, we may be able to answer this question. For the past four years, the Dow has moved along an irrefutable chart pattern parallel to the 1920s index. The current value of the Dow is approximately 40 times the value of the 1920's Dow. From May 1924 to October 1927, the Dow's price advanced to 199.7 from 88.3 - an increase of 126%. From November 1994 to August 1997, the Dow's price advanced to 8259.3 from 3638.5 - again, an increase of 126%. The basic patterns of the two Dows are extremely similar. The corrections nearly occur in the same spots, and the con-gestion/ sideways periods frequently overlap. From this 40:1 mathematical ratio to technical chart pattern corre-spondence, this "Dow/Dow" correla-tion is a matter of his-torical fact. Given the similar pat-terns of the two bull markets, we can project prices for the rest of 1998. In 1928, the market in January and February was weak and moved sideways before rally-ing from March through May. In June, a major sell-off eliminated gains for the year. But in July, the market firmed then rallied from August to December. The Dow finished up in 1928 gaining 48%, with all of its gains coming in the second half of the year. Will history repeat itself? Looking at "The Dow's top," using the exact price action of 1928-29 and projecting the 40:1 ratio onto the current bull market, several price projections are derived. January and February were choppy, and early first quarter projec-tions showed the market trading between 7400 and 8100. March, April and May will bring new Dow highs between 8500 and 8800. June and July will be the pull-back/turnaround months, with the Dow falling back to the 7680-8100 level. From August through December, the Dow will explode in a major buying frenzy from the 8000 level to 12000. If the 40:1 ratio holds true, the Dow will post a 50%-plus gain in 1998. Fibonacci indicators also sup-port projected major price gains. Between 1994 and 1997, the rally from 3638.5 to 7680 would have completed the pattern. However, the Dow blasted through the 7680 target to 8259.3. The overachieving move indicates this year's market could advance signifi-cantly higher through December. How can a trader make big profits in 1998? A rally to 12000 would represent a 4000-plus point move for the year. Such an advance would yield more than $40,000 profit per Dow futures contract. In 1999, expect tremendous volatility and violent price swings in the Dow. My price/time analy-sis predicts an all-time DJIA high between 15444 and 15909 sometime dur-ing the month of July 1999. The sell-ing, when it finally arrives, will assault the financial markets like a hurricane. Fear will become the mov-ing cause as waves of selling wash away paper profits. My downside price target is 7680, and this 8000-plus point Dow move translates into a more than $80,000 profit per contract for aggressive bear traders. Eric Lake is a commodities trader and broker with Peregrine Financial Group in Chicago. He can be reached at info@peregrineftnancial.com or 1-800--333-5673. >> ---Dave Steckler

To: Thomas Frank who wrote (2779)	6/14/1998 7:16:00 AM
From: Crossy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 37387

Tom, first of all, congrats on MWDS. This one is a sure bet and it already broke out of its trading range, from an "uninformed glance" it looks like it's a rollup type of strategy, horizontal integration. Like that, that's the Huyzienga scheme- makes sense and keeps cost down. On PWAV, I know You view it as a longterm holding, think You mentioned You had it in Your IRA. I mean it's ok but the whole group (SPCT, MPDI, PWAV, AHAA, TQNT, VTSS, RFMD, RFMI, ANAD) got hit especially hard by recent devaluations of SEA currencies. In fact PWAV was hit without merit. It's just a sentiment induced overreaction. It's coming back into my buying range of $14-16 and I'm playing with the idea of loading up a bunch. Question is only WHEN exactly.. best regards CROSSY