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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (4492)	6/13/1998 11:16:00 AM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

"As strange as it seems, if the Yen reaches 150 yen/dollar, that may cause flight of capital out of Japan, at a rate much larger than I expected just few weeks ago (at the time I was talking about a "slow" leak of $200 billion/year out of Japan)." Zeev, This is one "strange" situation. It appears to be unprecedented from what I read. Now that the average Japanese person knows his country is in an "official" recession, now they feel their currency is going to be getting weaker, now they are understanding(as we are) that there are some bad banking problems, I totally agree with you. Capital out of Japan is probably going to increase to higher and higher levels. It's a perfect time for the savvy Japanese investor to move savings over to US markets. Whether it be bonds or equities. What a tug-o-war. Liquidity(from all sources), and Low Interest Rates(with fat for cuts) VERSUS Slowing Corporate Profits(for multiple reasons) Which is going to win? What a seesaw battle. I bet the word "choppy" will be the most widely used word on Wall Street in the coming months. Thanks, MikeM(From Florida)

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (4492)	6/13/1998 4:53:00 PM
From: Bosco	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

g'day Zeev, Mike, Stitch & all - dear Zeev, you sez "As strange as it seems, if the Yen reaches 150 yen/dollar, that may cause flight of capital out of Japan..." Ok, assume that this scenario is a possibility, what will happen to the US Treasuries currently held by the japanese? I mean, I also do not see a US recession in the card; and granted that there is some flight to quality buying of UST, which may be the last to be unloaded. The japanese has been accumulating US assets including RE, stocks and bonds all these years [I think this is an old argument but it has not materialized thus far.] Still, one of the reasons attributed to the inability for the Haiwaiian economy to recovery with the rest of the US allegedly is due to the substantial pullout by the Japanese. Best, Bosco Best, Bosco