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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (22658)	6/13/1998 2:34:00 PM
From: Spartex	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42771

Steve, thanks for reply. Yep, only time will tell where NOVL is really going longterm. Regards, QuadK From the Investor's Business Daily June 10 issue care of someone out there in cyberworld. Relates, to Craig Dean's earlier SI post on Novell's potential for earnings in the small business sector. Two-Party System Rules SOHO Software Market By Lisa Wirthman For small businesses looking to streamline office computing and establish a presence on the Internet, networking software may be just what the doctor ordered. Novell Inc.'s NetWare and Microsoft Corp.'s Windows NT are the two main products trying to get down to size to meet small-business needs - and they are winning the market over. Until recently, network software has been too costly and complex for most small businesses. But in the last 16 months, Novell and Microsoft have shipped new scaled-down versions for small companies: Novell's NetWare for Small Business and Microsoft's BackOffice Small Business Server. ''The beauty is that you can get most of the functions of a larger operating system at a fraction of the cost, and have more extended business opportunities,'' said Todd Chipman, an analyst with Cambridge, Mass.-based Giga Information Group. Although on the market little more than a year, Novell's and Microsoft's small- business systems now are used in 32% of all companies with 100 employees or less running networks, says International Data Corp. of Framingham, Mass. Novell holds 22% of the installed base and Microsoft has 10%, IDC says. Network operating systems are designed to link office computers together and connect them to the Web. A desktop operating system like Windows controls only one computer. Network operating systems are used in addition to desktop software and can connect different types of computers. The number of businesses with networks today - about 1.6 million - is expected to triple by the year 2000, says Rick Blass, marketing manager for Novell's NetWare. Businesses with 100 or fewer employees account for 90% of all companies worldwide, he says. They also form the fastest- growing segment of the market for networking software, says Betsy Johnson, head of Microsoft's small-business division. Novell's NetWare was released in February '97, but a new, overhauled version was shipped in April. Microsoft's BackOffice is the company's first small-business product and has been shipping since November. Both companies' systems come bundled with other software for sending electronic mail, faxing and hosting Web pages. They also include software for connecting to the Internet, remote users or database servers that can be used to run business applications such as accounting programs. Both products connect all the computers in an office, so that employees can share files, e-mail and data internally, and access devices such as printers, scanners and fax machines. Employees who are traveling or working at home also can connect to a network to access files and exchange messages. They also enable small businesses to connect to the Internet. Companies can e-mail partners and customers via the Internet and host Web pages to provide information about their goods and services. Future versions of small-business networking products are likely to support electronic commerce. The Internet is gaining a reputation as a conduit for businesses to open up to the outside world, says Giga's Chipman. ''Even mom-and-pop types of stores are starting to look at the benefits of a network . . . and set up Web sites,'' Chipman said. ''It's the best way for them to advertise.'' While Microsoft's and Novell's products offer many similar features, there are some differences. Microsoft's system is likely to work with a larger number of programs, Chipman says. Novell's system keeps a lid on extras and costs less. Microsoft's BackOffice can be set up in as little as three hours, Johnson says, but the company recommends that users install the product with the help of a reseller or integrator. Novell's NetWare for Small Business can be up and running in an hour, the company says. Depending on a person's technical skill and the size of the network, it could be installed without outside help. But Chipman says both companies' estimates are optimistic. The average installation time for setting up a network operating system for 25 users is between four and six hours, he says. Other costs to consider, he adds, are any PC upgrades that will be needed in order to run the new software and any additional hardware required to set up a network - such as interface cards and cabling. Even with this more realistic picture in mind, network operating systems can still pay for themselves in a matter of months, Chipman says. The bottom line, says Microsoft's Johnson, is that the biggest obstacle for small businesses to overcome is their own fear of how complex it all seems. ''People still need to understand what business value they get out of a network,'' Johnson said. ''You may not use every single function on day one, but you can grow into and explore all the features over time.'' ''If you look back, businesses were also afraid to get PCs when they had typewriters,'' said Novell's Blass. ''That's the same point we're at with networks today.'' //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// Copyright (c) 1998 Investors Business Daily, All rights reserved. Investor's Business Daily - Computers & Technology (06/10/98) Transmitted: 06/10/98 23:55 (p0aa5yhi)

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (22658)	6/13/1998 8:07:00 PM
From: EPS	Respond to of 42771

Steve, FWIW I would like to clarify to you an other old timers that my status as a newie can only possibly apply to how long I have participated in this thread. I am NOVL class of '94 (my first NOVL @ 15 or so, then @9 then @7 then @ 6, currently my average price is around 8 + achieved through accumulation of a rather large number of shares..). For years the only way I made money with NOVL was writing options and exploiting the optimism of others. I guess that I probably care as much as anyone else. My main concern is the direction of NOVL and the viability of its business model and how I can profit from it. I need to know in detail if NOVL is going to meet its targeted earnings, if its executing in developing the new software, how the new software is received, the marketing strategies, the new ideas in development, the new companies that could benefit from associations with NOVL, the possibility of NOVL getting in partnership with with other major companies, I need to know about its competitors and how do they compare with NOVL and etc etc etc. Of course I do care if NOVL stuffed its channel in '96, or cooked its books in the past what is most relevant to me now is if those practices continue: I think they do not. I see as a major positive development that the infamous BOD that we all love to hate picked a person of Schmidt's calibre. I think that with Noorda's (by the way Noorda had also his hands full in the NOVL debacle) and other major shareholders support Schmidt is doing quite well in turning around the company and in the process also changing the BOD. I think the recent enthus is really based on the fact that NOVL has, for the first time in years, a good business plan (to coexist with MSFT, to embrace the Internet, to produce MORE and better products, to foster collaborations with developers, Java etc etc.) It has set for itself good attainable objectives and is going about to achieve them in an impressive manner. The buy back was IMHO a necessary step to convince the street that the company believes in itself that it considers the price of its shares a bargain. It was also a way to pay back to its loyal shareholders. Concern for shareholders is something that was lacking in NOVL of yesteryear. Regards Victor