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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (20321)	6/13/1998 8:19:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, I use Zacks as my source for future earnings estimates. 1998 estimates for many companies including AMAT have been revised downward. With so little forward visibility, most 1999 earnings are pretty much wild guesses. At the moment, Zacks consensus still gives AMAT $1.75 for FY 1999. This is obviously based on the assumption of the industry recovering by then or is this just a "lack of any better number" estimate? Per my unscientific observation, this is applicable to quite a few companies that I follow. This is rather troubling if everyone is assuming that 1998 is just a bad year and 1999 will be back to business as usual. The current stock prices certainly reflect those numbers. What if it takes longer than 1999? Using AMAT as an example, FY 1997 earnings were $1.39. FY98 is now at $1.38. If FY99 is eventually revised dn to $1, what type of a GROWTH stock do we have here? What PE should we be assigning to this cyclical? Which year's E should we use as a base yr? Ramsey

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (20321)	6/13/1998 9:14:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Respond to of 70976

Jacob OT - the idea of foreigners owning assets in Japan, and directly managing them, has been met with intense resistance at every level of Japanese society. Just an interesting factoid. The one area in which Westerners are having no problem hiring Japanese workers is professional women. Western companies are getting an outsized proportion of the educated, professional women due to the fact that women have little opportunity for meaningful work in Japanese companies. (An interesting story, 10 years old now, but ... - A friend of mine, a female engineer, was having a meeting with some Japanese engineers, and they proudly stated that they had just hired their first female engineer. And then she promptly came in to serve them afternoon tea, and left.) Clark