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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (4499)	6/13/1998 7:00:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9980

Zeev, Thread: <<Thus the Japanese can "pull out" that many treasuries without having an impact on our interest rates. Frankly, I think they should and redeploy these as Yens into their own economy.>> <<Now, will that happen? I doubt it very much.>> Help me here. As you know I am especially obtuse when it comes to economics. I just don't get it. Can you think of a Japanese reason as to why they would not do this. Or why they don't just say "As a special for of tax this year every tax paying citizen must go out and buy one major appliance and one new suit of clothes?" I see little argument that the tax payer in japan is impoverished. I have been utterly fascinated with the few posts from our Japanese ex-pat Stephan Gilbert. Especially the one about how he has had Japanese friends remark with dismay "How could this happen to us, a nation of hard working and frugal savers, while the Americans, who are such profligate spenders, are doing so well." The reason I was entertained by this particular comment is because I had exactly the same reaction from one of my friends during my last visit to Japan. I told him that excessive saving was more evil then excessive spending because there were more victims involved. I am beginning to think my glib comment had a thin thread of truth to it. Would very much appreciate your (or anyone's) observations that could explain their stubborness. Best, Stitch

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (4499)	6/14/1998 5:13:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Hi Zeev .. don't think that I've posted to you before. I've been reading your posts for at least six months now. You're very good. IM Very HO The investors in Japan that still have money are the survivors. In other words they have lived through the popping of a bubble and still have cash in hand. These same people would look at the current stock market in the US with a large degree of distrust. The US bond market is another story..nice fixed interest etc... The problem takes place when the two governments work together to strengthen the yen. In recent times that resulted in the sale of bonds by the Japanese government. If this takes place again the outcome will probably be to convince the small Japanese investor to put their savings into Europe. End result is that the two economies get locked together, with Europe as the winner. In the meanwhile I think that the US stock market will not attract much of this large inflow .. Again .. IMVHO Gersh