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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stitch who wrote (3678)	6/14/1998 12:20:00 AM
From: Scott Moore	Respond to of 9256

My predictions: Maxtor and IBM will be the top two DD makers. WDC will be absorbed by QNTM or SEG which will be further drag on either and KMAG will go tits-up with HMTT being the force in media, because of its diversity into IOM, SYQT.... Not too sure what strategies STMD, APM, RDRT and HTCH could do, but it would be suicide to think that cutting back the workforce to diminish supply is going to make prices recover. Micron tried it with memory and the shortage hype lasted about 1 month and then prices took another dive as the Korean dumped more product. At this point, Asians have little choice but to dump inventories to try and get lean and mean. Some will dump and fade like Samsung, but I think Maxtor is looking to take leadership while the market is suffering. IBM, well it is just IBM.

To: Stitch who wrote (3678)	6/15/1998 3:16:00 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Stitch, Larry, On how to fix the HD oversupply (SEG or QNTM buying Maxtor), and Maxtor's "IPO will never see the light of other then "red herring paper". And all that was for was to set the playing field." Interesting notion. But, Larry, you suggest SEG or QNTM use "stock as currency". Why would Hyundai want SEG or QNTM stock? They NEED currency NOW, green US stuff, not won, and not toilet/wall paper which might be used for currency at some unspecified time in the future. Plus, why would SEG or QNTM want to use their cheap stock to buy MXTR's capacity and designs? SEG seems the likelier buyer to me--they have more cash than QNTM--but their new hire (of a couple of weeks ago) of a Maxtor VP in charge of new product introduction may have told them a thing or two to discourage it. I still believe that this will be a repeat of 199-93, when MXTR flamed up and down like a bad rocket. Ditto for Samsung. Getting into this business may not be that hard if you have a lot of cheap cash and can get an HD engineer or two and a president with good sales contacts. Staying in this business, though, and making consistent money in it, is a different story, especially when the cheap cash dries up. These people (at Hyundai and Samsung) seem to me to be a little dotty; they want to be be everywhere, and as a result, if they don't figure out where they are going to focus soon, they will end up being nowhere. It will be very interesting to see if this Maxtor IPO gets off, and at what price, how the company is valued. I sold my EMC (at a nice gain) and SMOD (at a nice loss) last week. Bought a little more MTIC after its dive, leaving the rest in cash for now, waiting for some great bargains. May be waiting until the late summer, maybe even the fall. We'll see.