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Non-Tech : BCOM, Great earnings, and a 2 for 1 split . -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Tadsamillionaire who wrote (125)6/14/1998 12:10:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 182
 
Tim,
My best guess of stock getting no higher than 22 after earnings is very shorterm... I would be surprised if stock went above 22 in July immediately at earnings release... would love for it to do so... it would have to be at doorstep of 22, like 21+ at the release... needs to get off its back and move up four points in next four weeks, not unreasonable... belief based not so much on BCom's fundamentals as the general market jittery situation and shunned smallcaps... and summertime is usually slower in markets with volume lower

small caps are looking downright pukish... Russ2000 is now 12% off April highs... money still goes blindly into large caps, big index funds, etc... BCom PE is now 26... with another solid qtr, the trailing four qtrs might add another 10-13 cents to that total... 30 times that is $3-4 per share... that takes it from 18-21 range to 21-24 range, with possible momentum push beyond 22

not a complex line of thought here... until smallcaps get some respect, I cannot see BCom getting over 30pe ratio

good comment about BankBoston... but that bank was maybe 10-20 times larger, wasnt it? ... mergers are bringing the sector into spotlight, and that is good... both sides of shareholders dislike the WellsFargo/Norwest merger so far

Barrons again focused on several viable smallcaps in an article, but mostly techs... everybody is scared stiff of smallcaps in case of big stock selloff, where their thinner liquidity means heavier losses... they would rather buy CampbellSoup at 33 times earnings with its 3% growth and huge daily volume... go figure!!!

/ Jim Willie



To: Tadsamillionaire who wrote (125)6/16/1998 9:17:00 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 182
 
Tim,
Spoke with Cereghino Investor Relations last night (Seattle firm hired by BCom). Sending me two analyst research reports via FedEx at BCom's expense! She said even at 16-17, stock is above typical bank price relative to its book value.

Two new analysts this qtr initiated coverage with strong buy reco's. Estimate Q2 earnings is 20 cents average. Dunno last year's Q2, but my guess is about 10-11 cents. Estimate FY98 earnings is 85 cents average. Each new analyst has a FY98 price target of 25, which is 30x earnings. She calls it an extremely high quality bank stock with a great future.

Nothing new on additional states. Texas is well underway. Atlanta is starting up. Illinois is nowhere yet. BCom will move into new states as soon as they feel it is wise, and executives can be recruited to lead efforts.

Stock is a fraction above its 200day moving average now. Last couple days it had low low volume but still went down. No urgent heavy selling though. Wide bid-ask spread.

/ Jim Willie