Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (48660)	6/13/1998 10:17:00 PM
From: JBL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

Michael, I'm not sure we will see the Dow at 4600 ever again but my gut feeling is that something significant is about to happen. This Friday (June 12), we got confirmation that Japan was in a recession, the first in 23 years, and the numbers (released after Tokyo was closed) were much worse expected. Seoul dropped 8 % on the news, and I expect that Hong Kong and Tokyo will be hammered on Monday. The first wave of the Asian crisis was discounted, and rightfully so, because the impact of SE Asia on the US economy was not so great. Japan however is on a different scale, and at a time when growth in US earnings is apparently becoming weaker, this, in my opinion, will be the catalyst for a strong correction.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (48660)	6/13/1998 11:09:00 PM
From: gbh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

The other 86% of purchases come from people who are closing out their bank CDs because the market always goes up, or who have just inherited money, or who have just been paid. Michael, hi again. So your basically saying that 86% of inflows in mutual funds come in on a whim? I find that hard to believe. I work for a living. Virtually everyone I know and work with max out 401K contributions, mindlessly (smartly?). Company matches. It seems to me this type of money is the vast majority of what flows in each and every month. Not from people cashing in CD's, or inheriting money. "Just been paid" fits more with my idea. This is the "mindless" kind of regular money coming in I am referring to. People just learn to live with a smaller pay check because they know, long term, the market works. Ah, but there will be a time when buying the dip doesn't work. The same was true in the late 1960s and early 1970s, then 1974 hit and it didn't work any more. So your telling money invested in the market in the 60's and 70's is worthless today? I would guess people who were smart enough to invest then, are happily retired now. Except those who were so spooked by 74 that they pulled out all there money and put it in CD's <ggg>. My feeling about the Dow is that fair value is around 4500, which is about average pe ratio for earnings if they were honestly reported. However, just as we go far beyond fair value on the upside, we will go far beyond it on the down side My feeling is also that we will see 4500 on the Dow. Of course, only if they figure out a way to split it 2 for 1. Seriously. If you feel Dow 4500 is coming, you could be buying lots of those new Dow puts. Dow 4500 puts should be pretty cheap right now. Man, you are really a gloomer and doomer. Since you've decided to hang out here, I can only assume you are negative on ASND. If you have any specifics ASND I would like to here them. I doubt if there will be a commie president, but brokers hung from lampposts is a distinct possibility. Ahh, we have common ground. Gary