Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug who wrote (5155)	6/14/1998 12:03:00 AM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18016

The Market and Investor are more concerned about NN's ability to show revenue and Income growth from any source ATM,Gigabit Ethernet, Wireless ATM or any other related technology including Maintenance Software. Don't forget DWDM. Through its 40% stake in its affiliate, Cambrian Systems, NN is well-positioned to benefit from the fast-growing optical fibre market, specifically the MAN or Metropoliitan Area Network. According to statistics from Pioneer Consulting, the U.S. Optical Access Market [$ millions] will move from $76 in 1998 to $2,467 in 2006. In the enterprise MAN market, Cambrian's target, the projections are $22.4 in '98 growing to $1,525.6 in '06. The Inter-office Market will range from $48.0 to $620.0; and the Local Loop Market from $6.0 to $321.6. From Cambrian's website --- cambriansys.com <<<Cambrian Systems' OPTera is a survivable metropolitan DWDM transport system delivering 32 wavelengths or channels for a total capacity scalable to 80 gigabits per second over a single strand of fiber. OPTera's modular, cost-effective architecture enables direct bit-rate and protocol independent transport of a broad range of signals including SONET/SDH, Gigabit Ethernet, D1 Video, fiber channel, ESCON and other signal formats up to 2.5 gigabits per second with or without optical amplifiers. Per wavelength optical supervisory channel and ring protection switching enable flexible, high quality service delivery. OPTera offers DWDM metropolitan transport solutions for the future, today.>>>

To: Doug who wrote (5155)	6/14/1998 2:54:00 AM
From: Andrew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

Doug, Sorry, I can't find the numbers for the MCI and BT contracts. When this was being discussed last fall on this thread, there was talk about hundreds of millions of dollars over several years. I think the figures came from conference call questions but I could be wrong. You would be correct to assume that I have not broken these figures down into revenue and earnings models. What was very important to me was that these two vendors (as well as several smaller ones) were commiting to NN/Siemens for the future of their packet networks. This suggested quite a step up in the nature of ATM deals. It seemed to me that for the first time, people were talking about deploying really big ATM networks - and they were choosing NN to do it with. So this creates a long-term stream of revenue on a much larger scale than the small-scale stuff going on previously - hence growth. And I believe managment stated in the recent conf call that BT/MCI revenues would begin to show up either this past or next quarter. "If NN was so sure of its ability to ramp up its revenue internally, why was it necessary for them to buy U.B Networks. Since this question remains unanswered , I submit that the likely reason for this buy out was that the ramp up of revenue by external acquisition was more certain than other alternatives and an absolute necessity. " UB networks was a diversification - a way to strengthen their LAN/Enterprise positioning. People often espouse the theory that customers will increasingly prefer one-stop-shopping providers. I think NN is better served exploiting a relationship with 3Com than buying a third-tier shop. They can provide one-stop shopping without the headaches of a merger by making sure MainStreetExpress stuff interworks efficiently with 3Com stuff. And doing co-marketing and all that. No I don't think "that NN will continue on its growth trajectory entirely on its own steam. " I believe that NN has to ally itself with some good names so they can offer "total solutions". In order to sell the big switch and the high margin network management software, you need to be able to sell the Local Area stuff as well. I don't think that major aquisitions are necessary. 3Com sells NN stuff and NN sells 3Com stuff. Just my opinion...maybe it'll work, maybe it won't. But it looks like we'll find out because that seems to be the chosen path... Regards, Andrew