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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gbh who wrote (48666)	6/14/1998 1:37:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

Gary, 1. This is the easiest of your questions. No matter what else you may or may not know about risk, Ascend at $23 is less risky than Ascend at $30. Did something fundamental change at the company? Nope, all that happened was that the price went up. BTW, I've been right reguarly on Ascend's stock price, along with many other stocks, but I have had my share of losers. I believe in doing a mea culpa. Cramer does a mea culpa every now and then, but not as often as his wrong picks would demand. TA is like astrology or looking at bird's guts. A security blanket for those who lack the courage of their convictions. I am a contrarian fundamentalist who is a valuation, not a value, player. 2. My point is simple. You should not marry yourself to one inflexible strategy. The fact that you are on these forums posting proves that you are looking for better ways to invest, as are we all. There is much to be learned from hedge fund techniques and managed futures accounts and high net worth individuals. Of course, in the past 5 years, many so-called hedge funds have allowed themselves to be pigeon-holed like mutual funds, so those aren't very instructive. <G> I think too many investors are looking in to few directions to see what is available. That has always been the case, but tunnel-vision is now celebrated. 3. I thought I was saying it flat out. The average can never beat the average. I feel you have to at least TRY to beat the herd. You may not make it, but you will definitely not reach your long term goals in indices. This manic bull bubble has distorted folks ideas about how much return you really make on the stock market averages over a long period of time. 4. Let's see, having worked at a technology analyst at a major mutual fund company, I think I have some idea what SFA, Gorilla and Ascend do for a living. <G> And you missed the word, merger. I am not saying that they necessarily buy Ascend, but that there may be a merger. Coms takeover of US Robotics is a perfect example of the fact that in this era of inflated stock values, mergers don't have to make sense. You are buying a $25.000 cat by giving up partial interest in your $50,000 dog. The original question was, can Ascend make it alone or will they need to merge. My answer, which I hold to, is that they can make it alone, but they will probably merge to offer a wider array of products in the future. 5. Who cares what went up for the past five years. It is the next year you are investing for right now. Any number of Asian stocks did better than US stocks in the 5 years ending in 1995. Are fluffed up trading sardines like Dell going to do well over the next 5 years? I doubt it. MB