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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mason Barge who wrote (5837)	6/14/1998 11:42:00 PM
From: ET	Respond to of 10921

techweb.com

To: Mason Barge who wrote (5837)	6/15/1998 3:48:00 AM
From: Jess Beltz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Mason, you may know more about Semi-cycle dynamics than I do, but I don't know about now being the time to buy just yet. Reasons: (1) The yen tore through 145 and is approaching 146. At this rate it will certainly be at 150 by the end of the week, and may get there before the close of trading on Wednesday. What that means for the SE Asian currencies and domestic economies is really grim. (2) Until the Japanese recognize the problem and do something meaningful to stop it, the end to the problems in Asia is nowhere in sight. The Hang Seng, and indeed almost all of the Asian markets are getting hammered again today. Here in HK, it's the result of rising rates to defend the HK dollar against what is increasing looking like a mounting currency attack. There seems to be some sort of atmosphere of unreality in government circles in Tokyo, while the money is leaving the country as fast as it can get out. If you ever wondered what it was like to be in Rome listening to a weird fiddle tune while the city was burning, this is it. It may be the greatest example of fiduciary irresponsibility in the history of the world. It is some sort of financial Gotterdamerung. What will happen in Japan, Taiwan and the PRC is really hanging in the balance right now. I think the magnitude of the problem is contributing to it. Some even here on this and the Asian thread have indicated that they just cannot imagine that it could be that bad. We'll see. (3) There is real disarray in the domestic (US) PC market, and it is not at all clear how that is going to play out, both in terms of fab upgrades and order pushouts due to declining sales. Infrastructure is indicating that there will be a host of bad news about declining sales coming out as the quarter comes to a close. Firms seem to be queueing up to pre-preannounce their next set of missed numbers, impending layoffs, etc.. And is it not also true that the BTB numbers are still declining, and have not begun to turn upward yet? I agree that (1) the blood is running in the streets right now, (2) you have to buy while there is still fear in the air to make a real killing, and finally (3) as always, there is a ton of money waiting to try and catch the next semi cycle upward. However, I would say right now that the ONLY reason one would jump in to semi equipment stocks right now is the belief that they simply cannot go any lower. I think the reasons given above indicate they can. I think there is a lot of blood yet to flow, and if the dam bursts here in Asia, it won't just flow, it will flood. jess.