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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Mazzarella who wrote (201)	6/14/1998 10:43:00 AM
From: Larry S.	Respond to of 972

Richard, I agree, if Murphy is right and Japan is buying gold, an announcement of such action should give gold a substantial boost. There probably isn't a connection, but there was a Swiss Banker in attendance at the recent mining conference in NY and he was very bullish on gold and mentioned Japan and the YEN as his reason for being bullish. He was from Zurich and in his late 40s, so he had experience. He commented in a couple of session I attended but I couldn't be sure of what he said and the speaker didn't repeat much of his comments. He was German/Swiss and spoke very fast so I found him hard to understand. I spoke with him in the hallway and recorded some of our conversation but I still can't be sure of his reasoning. he kept referring to the YEN chart (POG in YEN) as being the important chart to observe. He also spoke of purchases in Asia but I'm not sure of when or how much. One thing I did get out his comments is that he doesn't expect the Swiss to sell gold. His comments, in this regard, were somewhat at odds with those of business friend from Zurich that visited the week before the conference. He didn't feel that the young Swiss appreciated the value of gold and felt they might approve some sales. However, while he is very smart and has an important position in telecommunications products company, I think he would agree that his level of expertise in this area is the equivalent of mine and that is essentially nil. Cheers, Larry

To: Richard Mazzarella who wrote (201)	6/21/1998 1:18:00 PM
From: Larry S.	Respond to of 972

Richard, Barron's GMI was 361.36 on 6/18, down from 366.52 last week. With the POG at 297.75, the ratio is 1.21, down a significantly. The indicator significantly more bullish. Cheers, Larry

To: Richard Mazzarella who wrote (201)	6/29/1998 11:10:00 AM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 972

Richard, This thread seems to be getting very quiet. I apologize for being late posting the Barron's GMI bit but there aren't any surprises. I also apologize for not responding to your post promptly. We have been caring for our Grandson and that comes first. Barron's GMI was 358.22 on 6/18, down from 361.36 last week. With the POG at 293.65, the ratio is 1.22, up slightly. The indicator is quite bullish. I don't know enough to have a meaningful opinion on the impact of Japan buying gold, but it would sure seem significant to me. The discussion/debate on the various threads where Bill has been posting has become even more interesting with Hughes having joined in. However, I find the thought of a CB conspiracy to hold down the price of gold hard to accept. Common interest may play roll but, as was pointed out by someone, the interests of the various CBs are diverse. With respect to the POG, I would think that the forward selling had a greater negative impact during the past couple of years than CB selling (I understand it has been much larger than CB sales) but that, once there is a consensus that the price will turn up, forward selling should stop and the lack of selling by CBs will be a major factor. I have a little trouble with Bill's view that CB selling is all that matters. However, I would have expected forward selling to have abated during the past Feb. and March but the rise in the POG didn't accelerate. I suspect that there wasn't a consensus that the POG has turned up but Bill is probably right and CB selling may have held it back. Reduced demand in Asia probably contributed to the softening of the rise. My bottom line is that the POG needs something to jump start a rise and that, once there is a consensus that it has started, the rise should accelerate. There seems to be several events that individually or in combination, could jump start it. A few of the more obvious are: 1) An announcement that Japan is buying. 2) An announcement that the Dutch have completed a major sale. 3) An announcement by the ECB that their reserves will include more than 15% gold. 4) An announcement by the ECB that no further sales from national CBs will be permitted for some substantial period of time. There many more possibilities, including a breakout of hostilities in the Middle East or a dramatic/unexpected change for the better in Japan, but the above 4 are those that seem most probable at the moment. However, I'm sure you can add several. Of course, there are a number of possible events that could send the POG down further. I'm not a Elliott wave fan but Auger has had a good record since I have been following him and he seems to be suggesting that we are heading lot lower before we get the bull market that we are all looking for - scary. And, his time table seems consistent with Armstrong's view that a low in the POG is most likely in late July. I sure hope the low, when it comes, if it isn't behind us, isn't much lower. At the moment, I'm at least as concerned with what has been happening to the prices of the base metals. Copper, Lead, Zinc and Nickel are all down dramatically. Have you noticed that the INCO's VBN stock has fallen like a rock. I suspect that any rise in their prices will follow a rise in the prices of gold and silver. Do you agree? Cheers, Larry