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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee who wrote (45735)	6/14/1998 10:50:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 58727

INDEX UPDATE ------------------- As previously stated the short-technicals for the overalll market is already in the mid-range which normally means that that the market is very susceptible to news/fundamental issues and can go either way with about the same amount of downside as upside. In other words we are smack in the middle and anything can happen, so it would be good to be cautious of any strong position in either direction. The technical underpinnings are still very weak and on Friday many indexes set lower lows on a intraday basis and some on a closing basis. For the upside the SPX, OEX, HFX did not set lower lows by staying above their previous dips and the DRG is still very close to its all-time high, being a strong flight to safety sector at this time. Also for the upside the interest rates are so low. With this tug-and-pull action, I am getting the feeling that there just will not be huge movements in either direction, and my amended TRADING RANGE of 8600-9100/9175 should still hold (still not confident of the upper limits as to whether its 9100 or 9175 yet). Also since the DOW did not close below 8750 (old trading range bottom), there is still a chance that the old trading range of 8750-9300 is in effect - need the DOW to close below 8750 to confirm the new trading range of 8600-9100/9175, if not we revert back to the 8750-9300 range. Now the question is where will the market go during expiration week - WHO THE HELL KNOWS GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG Frankly feel that the DOW will be relatively flat by the end of the week but the oscillations during the week could whipsaw many as it did on Friday; therefore intraday oscillations could still be strong. If we move up feel that the top of this specific short-term upswing will arrive TUE/WED(latest THUR), then the next short-term down leg will start. If we are head down starting MON, then the bottom of this down movement could end TUE/WED(earliest MON afternoon), the the next short-term up leg will start. The 3rd possibility is that it will be YO-YO TIME - just up and down with little follow-thru in either direction. For the overall bias it is still slightly to the down side; therefore feel the probability of setting slightly lower lows is greater than setting higher higher. Untill the technical underpinnings as in the NEW HIGHS/LOWS improve the weakness in this market has a slight advantage over the strengths in this market. Please also keep in mind that the INTEREST RATES, CRUDE OIL, COMMODITIES are all technically SEVERELY OVERSOLD and they could easily pop to the upside this week and as early as MON. If they do pop and pop substantially that could be a strong negative for stocks. I would keep a close eye on the follow issues for direction this week: 1) INTEREST RATES 2) CRUDE OIL/COMMODITIES 3) NEW HIGHS/NEW LOWS Seeya