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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (4512)	6/14/1998 9:42:00 AM
From: Stitch	Respond to of 9980

Zeev, If I understand correctly the whole world except them is using the R word. In any case, I have a suspicion that the late rally Friday was not the turn you are looking for. Tommorow I get to drive to Penang and visit several very decimated companies. These visits get grimmer and grimmer. I am glad I seem to be recovering from a bout of tropical fever which was no doubt picked up in a hawker stand because there isn't enough water to wash properly. I knew better. One comment before I call it a night. I have been to a few of those executive entertainment nights in Japan as well. They are outrageously expensive. I also note that a typical sales call in Japan is a whole day deal and usually more then one person goes. And frankly, all this hard work ethic is spent attending endless meetings and filling in lengthy reports. I am certainly glad that Americans cherish their pastimes. It forced us to work a bit smarter IMO. Otherwise we might miss that weekend tearing up the wilderness in our 4 WD, go anywhere, RV. G'Nite All, Stitch

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (4512)	6/14/1998 10:56:00 AM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Zeev, In a normal year, this may have been true. "Normal" being the past three years or so. But I think you may be under estimating the power of current warnings season. In the past few years we had good growth in corporate profits. 4Q97, 1Q98, and more than likely 2Q98 haven't been so good. Just think what a warning by Intel MAY do to the market. Ouch. As you know, I'm trying to track the warnings. Now as a very rough guess, I would say out of say 15 warnings I read, 3 are related to "Asia." There are 11 more that warn but don't use Asia specifically as an excuse. Common reasons being, ..slowdown of orders from our customers...increasing inventory levels...exchange rate devaluations...etc. I was tempted to post these types of statements because I think they are significant, but there would be just too many. Then there is 1 out of 15 that would announces a positive message. Another factor of near term concern is, further deterioration of Japan's banking problems because of their relationship to the Nikkei. As you may know, I originally was very skeptical of Japan's debt problems. But the more information I gathered (a lot from this thread), the more concerned I am. I think the drop in the Nikkei below 15,000 could have force some big problems to the surface, near term. This would also do some short-term damage to our equities markets. Then I have some other concerns, for the slightly longer time frame. But those aren't important. Because I'm more and more convinced that, as you say, "Liquidity wins hands down." So right now, I'm just figuring out when to enter, and make some short term gains, then pop back out. I'm not sure if the next week or two, is such a good time to be popping in. But that is just my opinion only. I can't see the gains I may miss, would outweigh the losses I may take. Remember IMHO and I'm heavily into tech stocks. MikeM(From Florida) PS1 On June 13, Greg gave us a great link to a chart that Briefing.com did tallying up warnings and comparing them to past quarters. It was a great chart, but it's no longer available. If there is someone who is a subscriber to Briefing.com, could they check out if this chart is available and has an update? Thanks. PS2 Zeev, I just caught your statement about everyone knowing about Japan's recession. Funny, I would have thought so too! But the number one headline in their papers the next day was the "recession" story. By the way, I've only read one report where this "news" was reported AFTER their markets closed. So I'm not even sure if this is accurate.