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To: Steve Smith who wrote (14416)6/14/1998 6:45:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 17305
 
All:

I received an error message when clicking on the link "Kerry J Carmichael" that said "Your cache is not Y2K compliant." Anyone else get this message? This is a first for me and am not sure exactly why I am getting it when I hit this specific link.

exchange2000.com

TIA,

BK



To: Steve Smith who wrote (14416)6/15/1998 12:06:00 PM
From: Andrew Vance  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 17305
 
*AV*--of the group of 4 you mentioned, I only have an opinion on SVGI.

The following is straight from an analyst that has some credibility with me.

"Market perform. We have adjusted our SVGI estimates for 1998 to $0.29 down from $0.72 reflecting the company's guidance. We have also adjust our 1999 earnings estimates to $0.80 from $0.96 due to limited visibility and a more cautious business tone.

Though order rates for the track systems might be improving, there will be considerable price pressures from Japanese competitors. There may be upside potential to the lithography division but that upside continues to be offset by SVG's track and Thermco divisions.

The company reported order pushouts and cancellations and noted that revenues and earnings in the second half of 1998 would be lower than originally expected by as much as 30%-35% and therefore see no immediate or compelling reason to own the shares of SVG until we see more positive momentum or the downward pressure reverses. Competitors continue to ramp aggressively.

I have had a negative bias towards owning SVGI for many months and I have not changed my mind recently. The Micrascan is a financial burden and it has yet to ramp sufficiently to come near the manufacturing capacity of the new facility built back East. Track system competition is getting very aggressive and is becoming more of an issue for them going forward. They had a very troubled past with these systems at SEMATECH and it took a great deal of effort via EIP(Equipment Improvement Programs) to get a productionworthy system. This SEMATECH "joint venture" did not yield the business that was anticipated. Despite what the analyst stated above, I always thought the Thermco division was the bright spot of this company.

I see SVGI weakened and in need of a partner or partners to create a more diverse organization. They have 3 distinct divisions with each of them falling out of favor as competitors come onto the scene. I do not think the Micrascan will ever be one of the top 3 systems used for DUV. And even though I am a proponent of the SVG track systems, given an opportunity to purchase equipment for a new fab construction, I would probably desert SVG for the likes of a foreign competitor.

As far as ESIO, CMOS, or SQNT are concerned, I must defer to others since I do not have enough information or experience with these companies to render an opinion.

Andrew