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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (4518)	6/14/1998 12:40:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9980

Mike, maybe I should make my turnip's vision a little clearer. Right now, I see a summer rally lasting from around here to late July. A toping action in August with ups and down, a decline starting thereafter going into a tail spin in October (as, I have said before, we might even be served an October massacre, which is rare to have two years in a row) and then a resumption of the bull market. The weakness my mauled turnips are seeing in Autumn is just a retracement within a bull market. My turnips not only reserve the right to be wrong, but to change their opinion and change it often. Last November they foresaw a bland January followed by a weak February and then a rally in spring leading to a major decline in June. It turned out they were wrong and February was roaring, in essence delaying the scenario to the present one. In retrospective, what through them off course was the calculation that the big bang in Japan was not supposed to start until after April 1st, but strangely as it sounds, a big chunk of money left Japan much earlier than that date, causing a liquidity driven rally in February (thus my Turnips' "Liquidity wins hands down"). Have I confused every one sufficiently.? Now to the bear case, if at any time (either right here, which I doubt) or later in October, 8250 on the Dow is breached (and not recovered within a day or two), then my turnips (mauled again) will change their mind again and will turn bearish on a long term (meaning a major additional decline of about 2000 dow points to then 6200 or so within a year to 18 months, a real bear market) basis. To make the story even more complex, the rally I expect here should be led by stocks like the MRK, PFE, Merryl and their kinds. Strangely enough, the overvalued Yahoo and Amazon also land on the winners lists. From the mauled techs the biggest wins would be (so sayeth the Turnips) in companies like CSCO, ASND, Dell, (I actually like CPQ), GTW and yes even INTC (I can see a run to the low 80's or so). I also like CYMI, VECO, AMAT and NVLS and DPMI. But they think that we may need to wait for these to bottom until we get a real catharsis in the next 10 days or so. The Turnips have spoken (VBG). Zeev