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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hank Stamper who wrote (20346)	6/14/1998 2:28:00 PM
From: MileHigh	Respond to of 70976

David, they have been saying the "corretion is coming, the correction is coming". Where is it. It might come tomorrow, who knows. Look at the moderate drops and then the fund managers come and buy on the dip....Buy on the dip, that's another belief now. Again, rightly or wrongly, it happens.. Besides, where are you going to put your money with the 30 yr long bond ant 5.69%, you will sell into the madness and then sit down at your desk and decide where to put your loot. Let's see, there is T-bills, dont't think so, gold, nope (no inflation worry), oil, don't think so either, real estate, not good there either as posters have argued asset inflation....So after the melee is over you will have your chunk of money and AFTER the sell-off, you will say, boy, oh boy, the stock market looks like a good value now!! I may appear naive or act like a lemming, but look at the economic indicators - record low interest rates, no inflation, stable and growing economy, etc..That is my reasoning that "the crash" has not ocurred....Watch for the indicators to turn, and then people should start to worry... Good Luck! MileHigh PS- AS far as the '87 crash, the economic indicators were MUCH worse at that time. I would have to refresh my memory, but interest rates were well above current levels. Different environment, different time...

To: Hank Stamper who wrote (20346)	6/14/1998 6:47:00 PM
From: Teri Skogerboe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Re: "From what I experienced and saw in others that day, I think we'd be naive to think the 401K (RRSP--in Canada, my country) flow wouldn't reverse. I am certain it would and that it's withdrawal from the market would fuel a bear market. It's not the source of the money, it's the psychology and the Crowd has not changed." Well said. This is now a confidence game and IMO the higher valuations go, the more confidence/faith it takes for them to remain at these heights. We've had a "goldilocks" economy for quite some time now. I can't see it staying "not too hot" and "not too cold" forever... It never has before. And, I just cannot believe the crowd has changed or that they ever will change. Look at Japan, the confidence is gone and the money is following it right out of their market. Re: "the baby boomer argument". The assumption is that baby boomers will pay any price to own stocks, i.e. that they're just stupid gamblers, I guess. I find that very hard to believe. Baby boomers can read and most people have some sense of what fair valuation is. I know MileHigh has read "The Great Boom Ahead"... I've only read a small part of it... still, but it seems their assumptions were based on the fact that boomers would be spending money (being good consumers) which would in turn boost corporate profits, and subsequently stock prices. Okay, these things have happened. Only problem is the market has been going up ~ 3 times the rate of earnings. How long can that continue?? It seems to me that kind of situation has not been sustained in the past. Gottfried, Good articles...thanks! Teri