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Technology Stocks : Creative Labs (CREAF) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (11663)	6/15/1998 4:13:00 AM
From: Doug Fowler	Respond to of 13925

Doug: You state that the average NASDAQ correction as 50 percent in each cycle. but NASDAQ was never 50 percent higher than it is now ,and of course not twice what it is now. Can you explain?

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (11663)	6/15/1998 8:02:00 AM
From: Power ranger	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13925

BUY when there are bloods and fears in the street. FEAR is what those analysts are hoping for. Use your common sense, what have changes so far for Creaf to get so beaten down? Delay of SB Live is bad news, Asia is getting worse and Intel is dumping their i740 graphic chip. Other then the Intel, all other are old news and had been factored into the price. Oh griefs, creaf pre-warn last week, let's analyze how bad it is; 4th Q FY98. Revenue will be 10% lower, $280M /0.9 = $252M Profit margin mid 20 = $252M * 25% Gross profit = $63M From their past results, we know operating cost is about 16% of revenue. Therefore they should make a net of about $22.5M / 95M shares. So 4th Q EPS should be around 23 cents. ML put it lower at 10 cents and FY 98 EPS $1.47 FY 99, creaf maintain their guidance. ML lower it by 20% to an EPS of $2.26. Let be more conservative and lower it by another 10% to $2.00 EPS. What do we get? At $13 Creaf is trading at a FY 98 PE 8.8X and FY 99 PE of 6.5X . Minus off their $4 cash in bank, the valuation looks foolish. The big boys in Singapore are again selling big time today. Huge volume of 961K, share hit a high of $22.70 in early morning trading but succumb to heavy selling to a day low of S$20.10. Managed to end the day +0.60 at S$21.50 / 1.75 = $12.28. For those who have lost their faiths in creaf, sell and move on. For others, keep the faiths. Licking my wound and Loading up my double barrel - PR PS - Heard in the grapevine, creaf will announce a name change for SB Live during the PC Expo this week, it will be rename SB Late. :-) PR will be there to give Live (or is it Late??) commentary of the show. Hey taxi man, PR first time in the big apple, care to give a I.O.U. ride in one of your beautiful town car? Ye'know PR is 50% broke, $$$ all in creaf. Will pay you triple when creaf double, it shouldn't takes long. Deal???? :-)

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (11663)	6/15/1998 11:00:00 AM
From: Vanni Resta	Respond to of 13925

Well, the technical analysts are all saying there was not enough volume in last week's sell off for it to be a capitulation. So, short-term we could see some more sharp declines. My point yesterday was that Nasdaq is already down 10% from its highs this year, and I don't think there will be another 10% loss. But it is hard enough calling individual stocks. Calling short term moves in the stock market is nearly impossible, and I usually do not try. Happy Investing! Vanni