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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (10020)	6/15/1998 7:08:00 AM
From: Ploni	Respond to of 18691

Subject: AVNT 1) Strong Asian exposure 2) Many Asian sales are to related companies and individuals, and thus suspect 3) Civil lawsuit will eventually come to trial in the U.S., alleging that AVNT stole its major product from CDN 4) Criminal trial pending for AVNT's CEO and other managers, alleging they stole software from CDN Stock closed above $26/share on Friday, more than double its yearly low of 12 1/4.

To: Dale Baker who wrote (10020)	6/15/1998 8:08:00 AM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 18691

HELLLOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Futures are almost down at lock down negative levels and you could hear a pin drop in here. What's a good plan today? I already hold SPY and ZITL short. Thinking I may not want to short anything else at the open to see where the market heads after the initial plunge. Will the Internet stocks crash or will they still be a "flight to quality" (choke, gag)? Can the techs fall further, especially the semis?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (10020)	6/15/1998 8:56:00 AM
From: Joey Two-Cents	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Had the Dow closed down Friday by the 125 pts it was down at 2:00 (400pt's in 3 days) we may be looking at a record selloff today. The derrivative exposure of these banks to Asian currencies and its effects are unknown but enormous. The deflationary pressures working against countries with $ loans is detrimental to the world banking system. As the $ appreciates and commodity prices drop the risk of defaults by these nations increase. In the next 18 months we have a double whamy of Asian (world) meltdown and Y2K. I don't really see how Asian banks, Auto companies (GM Is spending $ 500M), factories etc will find the money or talent to rectify the Y2K problems. IMO any bank with Asian derrivative exposure (JPM, CMB, BT) is an easy bet. I like the options (leverage) over the stock

To: Dale Baker who wrote (10020)	6/15/1998 4:42:00 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Dale, I've been saying that for a while. Unfortunately I jumped the gun too soon, and got hurt by bank-merger mania while holding shorts on CCI and CMB. At this point, I'm cautiously preparing to re-enter. CCI still has lots of "merger hot air" built into it's price, as does their suitor TRV. IMO, either one is a great short. TRV's insurance operations almost certainly have derivative and asset exposure in the far east which has never been reflected in the stock price. The trading and money management business (Salomon Smith Barney) has also got to be sensitive to world markets, especially if the down trend spreads to the US and Europe. CCI, at the very least has significant exposure in their Asian consumer practice -- guess who's the largest issuer of credit cards in Indonesia? -- and probably to other important fee-generating businesses. And I still refuse to believe that CCI learned their lesson after the loan disasters with South America, Mexico, US Commercial real estate, and others. CMB is a great one. Probably the highest percentage of asset exposure among major US banks. BT and JPM are also good candidates. Keep in mind, they're all long-term shorts, and could take a while to sort themselves out. I would not short for a quick profit, instead I'd be looking for a substantial one over time. mg