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To: jmt who wrote (427)	6/15/1998 11:54:00 AM
From: OLD JAKE JUSTUS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4891

We kind of have long term outlooks! We are speculating on the potential Commercial Sales of Reticulose in the six Mescosur States of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Urguay, Paraguay and Chile, plus one other unnamed south of the border country. We are speculating on these countries, ALONE! PURE AND SIMPLE SPECULATION, SIR! It is reported that these combined countries have an estimated population of around 350,000,000 souls. PBV virus is reported to be prevalent in these countries. The potential for astronomical commercial sales, of Reticulcose, is there. We report the ADVR facts when we know them to be fact, but we mainly speculate because we are not given many facts. Let it be known that we are not affiliated with Advanced Viral Research Corporation in any shape, form, or fashion. Therefore, we could not possibly be official spokespersons for ADVR! On April 1, 1998, many witnesses, in New York, and other states in the northeast, heard a Bloomberg Radio report that quoted Dr. Shalom Z. Hirschman as saying that he expected to receive $1,000,000,000.00 in Commercial Sales of Reticulose from Argentina and the other Mercosur States within three years. It was reported from another source that the good doctor expected to receive $5,000,000,000.00 from the Commercial Sales of Reticulose within 5 years. This Silicon Investor Public Forum is for souls like us to discuss our views about certain subjects. In this case, it is ADVR, Reticulcose, Dr. Hirschman, etc. We are not, in most cases, reporting facts, but pure and simple speculation. That is a fact.

To: jmt who wrote (427)	6/15/1998 12:02:00 PM
From: OLD JAKE JUSTUS	Respond to of 4891

TO: ALL A reader asked that we evaluate this report and publish our thoughts on it: good reading for all <HTML> <FONT COLOR="#000000" SIZE=5>ADVISORY/Media Briefing On Tuesday, June 16 Will Cover World AIDS Meeting in Geneva <FONT COLOR="#000000" SIZE=3>News Editors/Health & Medical Writers ADVISORY...for Tuesday (June 16) --(BUSINESS WIRE)-- The 12th World AIDS Conference will take place in Geneva, Switzerland from June 28 to July 3. More than 200 UCSF scientists are expected to attend, and more than 150 UCSF scientists are scheduled to make presentations. Their research covers basic science, clinical science and care, epidemiology and public health, and the social/behavioral sciences. In advance of the international meeting, a UCSF briefing for local media is scheduled as follows: Tuesday, June 16 1:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. UCSF Center for AIDS Prevention Studies (CAPS) 6th Floor -- Main Conference Room 74 New Montgomery Street San Francisco The briefing will include: -- Overview of breaking issues in the fight against HIV/AIDS -- Thomas J. Coates, Ph.D., director of the UCSF AIDS Research Institute. (1 to 1:15 p.m.) -- 10-minute summaries of their Geneva presentations -- Members of the UCSF delegation who are reporting key, new scientific findings. (1:15 to 4 p.m.) -- Individual interviews with scientists -- At the end of the briefing, the scientists will be available for individual interviews. (4 to 5 p.m.) For more information or to RSVP for the media briefing, please contact Corinna Kaarlela or Mitzi Baker in the UCSF News Services Office at 415/476-3804. --30--aj/sf smm/sf CONTACT: UCSF News Services Office Corinna Kaarlela or Mitzi Baker, 415/476-3804 KEYWORD: CALIFORNIA INDUSTRY KEYWORD: MEDICINE EDUCATION ADVISORY Today's News On The Net - Business Wire's full file on the Internet with Hyperlinks to your home page. URL: businesswire.com BW0359 JUN 03,1998 </HTML>

To: jmt who wrote (427)	6/15/1998 12:56:00 PM
From: Kingfisher	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4891

jmt....IMHO your reality check is involving too many aspects which may only have to be considered by company managers not necessarily pseudo intellectual penny stock investors. After all, predictions can border on the absurd like basing the direction of the Stock Market in a given year on the league [NFL, AFL] of the team that wins the Super Bowl. Predictive mathematical models can be simple [i.e. composed of only one or two parameters] or involved [i.e., having many degrees of freedom]. Many of these later models use abstract mathematics [e.g., algebra, calculus], can be based on complex principles and may incorporate assumptions which can be flawed or not totally thought out. It would seem best that if one is attempting to make a prediction, the number of model parameters used should be kept to a minimum. Another point about modeling/prediction is that models can be fed data that are not obtained from accurate absolute measures. And to top that, input data may even be the output data from another model. Thus, if the input data for the model are flawed in any way, the output data will be erroneous. In other words, GARBAGE IN IS GARBAGE OUT. The more parameters contained in a model the greater the chances for GARBAGE IN.