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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shibumi who wrote (4614)	6/15/1998 8:15:00 AM
From: Thomas P. Friend	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Shibumi, It appears that your analysis matches up with mine: Rambus will win a large portion of this market, due to their far superior and necessary technology, but the dollar value of that market is probably not going to be what was projected a few months back. I did not understand your table, but your text is quite clear and restates my position perhaps better than I have been able to (judging from feedback on here). I would also add that SIA has tended to be optimistic in their estimates; as I'm sure you know, they recently drastically reduced their estimates for growth of the entire semi industry. My analysis is my own personal analysis, not relying on analyst predictions. Shibumi, I, too, would like to hear from others on what is wrong with what you and I have put forth. (I, particularly, am looking for reasoned analysis; not opinions, wild guesses about quarterly earnings, or technology lessons on the different types of memory.) I am always open to being convinced by a good, reasoned argument. Tom

To: Shibumi who wrote (4614)	6/15/1998 11:58:00 AM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Shibumi, why are you so surprised at how far the DRAM market had shrunk "given the latest 1998 numbers."? As events continue to play out in Asia, we have seen a steady stream of downward revised estimates. My perception of Asia's problems is that we have a "financial event" that has precipitated the current supply/demand "softness". Yes, I believe it could get worse near term, since we see little in the form of realistic financial reform. If this current Asian financial "event" becomes a protracted "slow bleed" rather than resorting to the necessary (but painful) steps to put their financial houses in order, we could continue to see erosion in the DRAM market (as with many others). For now, I see this as an unfortunate, unanticipated circumstance that has caught many analysts flat footed, but certainly not an event which changes the fundamental competitive landscape regarding RMBS, only one which may delay the projected royalty revenue stream. I don't know whether this "is what you're missing here", but it I do think it represents an important element of the current state. bp

To: Shibumi who wrote (4614)	6/15/1998 1:03:00 PM
From: starpopper	Respond to of 93625

My take on this is that the DRAM market has contracted substantially for two reasons. First, as stated previously, the Asian crisis has enabled/forced suppliers to cut prices in the hope that increased volume will offset the price cuts and bring in more hard currencies. Second, RMBS and INTC's plans have been out there for enough time to spur regular DRAM manufacturers to realize that their market will be substantially marginalized in the next upgrade cycle. This realization has enticed them to shoot their load now, rather than be caught flat footed next year with inventory that no one wants! Supply & Demand only can't justify your numbers...INNOVATION, by RMBS, has retired the regular DRAM market makers and forced them into a search for something that can compete! SLDRAM & DDR-DRAM are feeble attempts to rectify this situation...their maximum speeds and efficiency don't even come close to RMBS's initial/minimum specifications! I would expect to see RMBS leap frog the 1.6 gig standard announced previously by the end of the year...this would finally leave these guys in the dust and create additional pressures to adopt RMBS's new platform! I would also point out that consumers always want the latest & greatest product, and that the current pricing structure will be split in 1999...with regular DRAM holding down the low end, and RMBS technology priced in the mid-upper range! This will turn out to be an incredible buying opportunity that many will regret because of too much second guessing! The ambiguity surrounding the DRAM market, and the depressed levels of RMBS stock, is the perfect time for value/growth investors to initiate strong positions! We may test the low 30's, but RMBS WILL make that $100 price target by H&Q for 1st quarter 1999, as soon as the momentum players and rest of the herd start accumulating AFTER we top $50 by the end of the summer! $weet Dream$ $tarpopper PS. I'm about to buy my last regular DRAM system for under $1000...I already anticipate its obsolesence by 2000 and will EAGERLY plunk down $2000-$3000 for a 600+Mhz Merced coupled with the FULL RMBS system! Remember that it's not the software applications driving this thing...it is the VIDEO & SOUND possibilities of the internet that are forcing faster and faster systems!!!