To: Lewis M. Carroll who wrote (1760 ) 6/16/1998 1:47:00 AM From: Stu Read Replies (2) | Respond to
Well, earnings have been lowered slightly since I last checked the estimates on . Taking the share price of $30 and the low estimate of $1.47 for this year's earnings, we get a P/E of just over 20. If 1999 earnings hit the low of $1.75, then the P/E of 20 matches the earnings growth. However, if ALTR comes in anywhere near estimates for the next two quarters, then I think we deserve a higher P/E. I'm hoping that ALTR comes in flat with last year at $1.55. That would put the price in about the right place. Actually, that isn't true. I'm hoping that ALTR comes in with a whopping $1.75, but that's just wishful thinking. Anyways, consensus estimates are for $1.56 this year and $2.00 in 1999. If earnings fall in line with estimates for the next couple of quarters, then 98-99 earnings would grow 28%. In that case, our pitiful P/E should be at least 25. The consensus would put the shares at $39-$40 by the end of the year. Wouldn't that be great? That would be $50 in a year and a half. That's some pretty good money if you ask me.Will earnings really be $2.00 in 1999? I don't know why analysts think that earnings should pick up so much. The current market seems to be right where management predicted it would be. Without the earnings growth that Asia was supposed to provide, things are flat. Now, I don't remember management saying that earnings would start growing at 20%. Does anyone know what the analysts are basing the growth in earnings on? I sure hope they don't think that things in Asia will pep up within a year. That would be pretty optimistic considering the state of things. Any comments on whether a) earnings are really that visible and b) growth will really be that good.
