To: lin luo who wrote (1058 ) 6/15/1998 10:36:00 PM From: lin luo Respond to of 2578
-------OT------Currency markets Let me give an example to illustrate how much you can gain or loss on currency trading (I will do that through futures, not spot). From April 13 to today (June 15) about two months, Yen June contract has dropped from 78 (0.0078 dollar / yen) to 68, about 10 points. For every contract ( like 100 shares of stocks), gain / loss is $12,500. You need about $3,000 as margin to enter this contract. The traders are usually all risk-takers, not too much education (sorry to say that). It is a 24-hour thing. You can trade almost every moment. Every tick (1/100 point) it moves will gain / lose a lot. So, trading is almost solely based on technical. You will be eaten alive if you say or think, "fundamentally speaking,..." There is no fundamental for currency. I can give you a thousand reasons to support / against it. There is no cycles like in some stocks. Currency is one of three possible generic factors affect markets. That is why I am sometimes convinced that there is no fundamental to anything. The trend usually stops some time after the intervention from the Fed. It is the best interest of US to have a strong dollar to reduce inflation. If you think you have superior products in general over other countries, they will come to you eventually. That is why R. Rubin, the former currency trader, does not want to do anything. For example, people have to buy, at any cost, these state-of-the-art computers to improve themselves. The real winner of this crisis will be China and the loser will be Japan. China will advance or stand still w/o doing anything while others just collapses over time. US wants cheaper labor without worry about anything else, not cheaper labor plus suppling the raw material at the same time. The final turning point, I think, will come when Clinton goes to China and China promises not to devalue their yuan. It will be about the end of this month. So, it is a good time to shop now.