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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (47719)	6/16/1998 12:02:00 PM
From: Jim Patterson	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

RE: Everything I have read and heard puts Asia's overall impact on the U.S. economy as closer to 10%....When you get company specific, which one MUST DO when talking about how this crisis affects (long-term) stock prices, based on Q1 Data, Asia probably helped Dell (rise in gross margins-lower component costs) than hurt it (slowdown in region sales)...but even if the "crises" had a negative bottom-line effect, it was minimal at best. A 10% impact on the US? First of all, that is a large impact. Second, What impact will Asia have on Europe? What impact will the European impact have on the US? See we are just now starting to see the first real effects of the whole thing. The AP is experiencing its second wave of crisis; it should have one more after this. As all of this unfolds, the affects are felt wider and farther each time. Not many companies felt much in Q4, Q1 saw tough EPS growth, and now Q2 is in trouble. Q3 and Q4 will feel the affect harder and greater as the contagion spreads. NO, the world is not in Recession now. That is not what I meant to convey, sorry for the confusion. The world is on its way into a deflationary recession, and no one or no thing can stop it from happening. As currencies collapse, and companies flood markets with goods trying desperately to boost revenue and earnings, pricing will continue to implode for most good in most countries. On the other side, with Crude oil at multi year lows here, in the AP countries, the price of oil is up Year over year due to their weak currencies. This adds to their perdigimate. In South Korea, they have do deal with inflation when at the same time, the prices received for their exports are going down,(DRAMS are a main export of S Korea) The US consumer is still strong, but many are going bankrupt as we speak. If the US market gets into trouble, The finical condition of the US consumer will change in a hurry. Consumer spending has been trailing the market by about 3 months. If a strong rally does not develop by July, we may start to see it in the retail sector. Jim