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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (20438)	6/15/1998 9:25:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bonnie, I am not a day trader as you and most of your colleagues. Reading this thread is both educational and entertaining. The following is a partial view, from the perspective of a long only investor, whom invest mid to long term. (This is not the only indicator I use.) Run a 20 day weighted envelope with a 3% vertical shift on the DOW Industrial index. Note, the index struggles to stay in this trading channel. I believe it will continue to do this until the specialist do a shake out drop. I did not run a scan, but just picked these numbers off my chart. (They got to be close.) DOW Closes Last consolidation: Market High 08/06/97 8259.31 Consolidation Low 10/27/97 7161.15 Drop 1098.16 This consolidation: Market High 05/13/98 9211.84 Consolidation Low 06/15/98 8627.93 Drop (So For) 583.91 I believe, barring a complete meltdown over night, the DOW will rally back into the channel for the close. If not Tuesday then Wednesday. The S/MM's are not ready to shake the public out, NOT YET! IMO the DOW will continue to trade sideways with a downward bias. The market as measure by the DOW will trade in the channel described above, (with the possibility of dips), until the index starts playing tag with its 200 day SMA. Then, IMHO, the market will resume its up trend. That resumption may well be the last leg up for this Bull. Time will tell. BWDIK Regards, LG PS: You may have something regarding Goldman Sachs! I just don't think the S/MM's are ready for the public to bail. The public does not track the intra day moves and is not aware of the shaking going on. They just see the close each day. The S/MM's are shaking the hell out of day traders. Making a little side money.