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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frodo Baxter who wrote (4568)	6/15/1998 9:33:00 PM
From: kormac	Respond to of 9980

Lawrence, yes and add to that the air of invincibility as things seem to go well. At that the really bad investments start and they finally end up like this. Things are in my view going to go from bad to worse and we will see it here before long, excess liquidity notwithstanding. I am staying on the sidelines for sometime. Seppo Edit: Another day another dollar made in Slovakia quote.yahoo.com

To: Frodo Baxter who wrote (4568)	6/16/1998 10:29:00 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Seppo, Larry, I was going to quote that same paragraph, plus the one on suits (see below). I couldn't help but to try to envision 5 billion suits, sitting around collecting moths; what a feast! Maybe they'll use them to make some wonderful silk, and go after the high end of the market. Larry, substitute "disk drives" for "suits"; that's my nightmare. =========================================================== excerpt from Stratfor, for personal use (and abuse) only: "Despite growing demand for nice suit from the nouveaux riches men, the domestic supply of suit has far outstripped the market demand, today's China Daily quoted the China National Garment Association as saying. According to Chen Ling, an association official, China last year turned out more than 10 billion suits, half of which were exported, but only 13 million suits were sold in domestic market. As more and more suits are stockpiled in the warehouses, production costs of many enterprises are growing rapidly, which has led to the rising price of suits, she pointed out." In other words, the Chinese have FIVE BILLION suits sitting in their warehouses, priced beyond the reach of the Chinese market. They are also saying that they sold five billion suits last year, without selling more than a few million in China. We have confirmed this figure from other sources, but we still find it absolutely astounding. Indeed, we have to believe that this number is exaggerated. Either way it is bad news for China. If the number is correct, then it means that the garment industry has produced itself to oblivion. If the number is lower and there are only, for example, five million suits in warehouses, it still means that they are overproducing. It also means that Chinese economic statistics, like Chinese suits, are not always made of the finest fabric.