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Strategies & Market Trends : Graham and Doddsville -- Value Investing In The New Era -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (393)6/16/1998 1:20:00 PM
From: porcupine --''''>  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1722
 
Re Dunlap: Another Blowhard Bites the Dust

[Note: The Barron's expose' may have been the trigger; nonetheless, the outcome appears to have been inevitable. -- RR]

FOCUS-Sunbeam axes "Chain Saw" Al Dunlap

By Jim Loney

MIAMI, June 15 (Reuters) - ''Chain Saw'' Al Dunlap, the
controversial corporate turnaround specialist both revered and
reviled for hacking thousands of jobs from his employers'
payrolls, was himself fired on Monday by appliance maker Sunbeam
Corp.

Dunlap, 60, was dismissed for failing to deliver on his promises
to boost the company's earnings.

''We lost confidence in his leadership and his earnings
forecasts,'' Peter Langerman, Sunbeam's new chairman, said in a
conference call with analysts and reporters.

Dunlap, who took over Sunbeam two years ago and halved its
workforce through divestitures and plant closings, was removed by
the company's board just three months after he was signed to a
new three-year contract.

Dunlap's attorney, Christopher Sues, said his client was not
immediately available for comment. Sunbeam had not paid any
severance to Dunlap and issues surrounding his contract had been
turned over to company lawyers, Langerman said.

Sunbeam's new leaders said the company was not for sale and
declared it ''fundamentally better'' than it was when Dunlap took
over. But they said they would tinker with Sunbeam's
restructuring and expected the company to fall significantly
short of 1998 earnings forecasts of $1 per share.

Sunbeam has been on a roller coaster in recent months.

In January, the Delray Beach, Fla.-based company reported record
quarterly earnings on a 26 percent surge in sales. In March it
announced the acquisition of camping gear firm Coleman Co. Inc.,
Mr. Coffee manufacturer Signature Brands USA Inc., and First
Alert Inc., the smoke alarm maker. Sunbeam's stock hit a high of
$52 on March 4.

But in May, Dunlap jolted Wall Street when he announced a
first-quarter loss of $45 million, or 52 cents a share, and a
second, massive round of job cuts and plant closures.

Sunbeam's bookkeeping and sales practices came under attack this
month. The company heatedly denied any accounting gimmickry, but
its stock dropped to a year's low.

A critical article in Barron's suggested Sunbeam's 1997 profits
of $109.4 million were largely due to improper shifting of costs,
write-offs and revenues, which may have added up to $120 million
in questionable ''profit boosters.''

Langerman said Dunlap's ouster stemmed from concerns for the
company's future, not its recent results. He said its 1997
accounting was ''accurate in all respects.''

Dunlap -- who in addition to ''Chain Saw Al'' has been dubbed
''Rambo in Pinstripes'' -- took over Sunbeam after turning around
Scott Paper Co. At Scott, he pleased shareholders by slashing
11,000 jobs and boosting its stock before selling it to rival
Kimberly-Clark Corp. In the process, in addition to winning the
hatred of employees, he walked away with a reported $100 million,
primarily in stock.

When Dunlap took the reins at Sunbeam, the stock traded around
$12. He hacked Sunbeam's work force in half, to 6,000 employees,
and the stock rocketed higher.

Dunlap has frequently said that rather than cutting jobs, he
saves them by resuscitating failing companies.

After announcing the acquisitions of Coleman, Signature and First
Alert in March and their thousands of employees, Dunlap unveiled
another round of cuts -- 5,100 workers and eight factories in a
plan to save $250 million.

A week later the company rewarded him with a contract worth $2
million in annual salary and stock awards and options worth $68
million, according to published reports.

Efraim Levy, an analyst at Standard & Poor's who downgraded
Sunbeam's stock on Monday from hold to avoid, said Dunlap's
ouster was ''probably something they needed to do. He was
creating more controversy than help.''

''It's kind of a fresh start. Cost-cutting is one of the
advantages he's (Dunlap's) put in. He had done some profitable
initiatives. Now it's a question of leveraging them.''

Langerman said Sunbeam faced no liquidity problems, but had put
on hold a $1.7 billion loan syndication it had been negotiating
with bankers. ''We are determined to restore Sunbeam's
credibility,'' he said.

Langerman, 43, is chief operating officer of Franklin Mutual
Advisers, the investment adviser to Franklin Mutual Series Fund,
Sunbeam's largest shareholder, with a 17 percent stake.

Sunbeam's new chief executive, Jerry Levin, 54, a former chairman
and chief executive of Coleman Co. Inc. and Revlon Inc., said he
believed the three recent acquisitions made sense and that the
company was on the right track. He described his future strategy
as ''tinkering.''

But he questioned whether Dunlap's centralization of Sunbeam's
operations would work.

''My feeling is that for Sunbeam, which has multi-businesses ...
it won't work,'' Levin said. ''It's too complicated to run this
style ... I'm leaning toward profit center management.

''I do believe Sunbeam is pursuing the right strategy,'' he said.
''I am committed to running Sunbeam for as long as it takes to
fix the problems.''



To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (393)6/16/1998 1:41:00 PM
From: porcupine --''''>  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1722
 
The Case for Graham and Doddsville

The current "New York Review of Books", 6/25/98, p. 22 (available in many public libraries, and, for the time being, at least, at: nybooks.com contains an excellent summary and survey of 9 books on investing. The essay is both clear and concise (to a degree I have never succeeded in achieving <grin>) and cites, among others, Security Analysis (1934), The Intelligent Investor (4th Ed.), Stocks For The Long Run (Jeremy Siegel), A Random Walk Down Wall Street (Burton Malkiel), and What Works On Wall Street (James O'Shaughnessy).

The author of the essay, Roger Alcaly, President of CA Partners, comes down squarely in favor of Value Investing, notes that it is still not widely practiced by mutual funds, and makes a case that hanging in with undervalued stocks at a Market top is, in retrospect, less risky than trying to determine that the Market has in fact reached a top.



To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (393)6/18/1998 4:39:00 AM
From: Berney  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 1722
 
Need some help -- What is an average?

I'm doing this study that I call The Big Boyz. It has presented some interesting observations. I'll share one of them now.

There are about 7,500 companies in the investment database that I utilize. Of these, 4,310 have a five year total return amount. It is interesting that while the Index's annualized total return is 22.2%, the average of these 4,310 companies is 11.8%. 26% of these companies actually have a negative investment performance for five years (ouch!).

The Big Boyz are defined as those companies with a market cap of $40B or more, or are included in the DJIA. The way I'm doing it there are 85 companies in this universe, of which 16 are foreign companies. The annualized five year return for these companies is 30.1%. Further, while the investment universe hit a valuation of $15T last month, the Big Boys comprise 40% of the total.

In this study, I'm running into a real problem with comparisons. Specifically, what is an average? Let me give you the PE as of the end of May for one sub-group (industrials): UTX, 20.4; GE, 33.0; IP, NM (not meaningful): and EK 274.5. Now then, what is the average PE and how is this relevant.

I do not use this example in jest. These are four components of the DJIA. Is EK adding 9 points to the DJIA PE average? What is IP doing to the DJIA average PE?

I had decided that the median PE was probably more accurate a portrayal as you quickly dispose of the out-riders. Otherwise, it seems that no comparison of the present with "historical averages" would be meaningful. But then, I ran into the same problem with the use of median on a small group. What's the median PE of the four stocks in the Industrial classification?

BTW, the median PE for The Big Boyz for the last five years (by my method of computation) is 20.4. At the end of May, the median PE was 26.2. Based on 1999 EPS mean estimates, the median PE is 19.4.

I would appreciate all input on this issue.

Now then, let me address your message. I recognize BG's definition of valuation. I believe that valuation is in the eyes of the beholder. Valuation is an art and not a science. There are many "value" investors using many methods to determine "value". In my FA scoring system, CSCO gets a zero (where 13 is a perfect score); INTC gets an "11". However, I understand how some folks perceive a "value" in CSCO, and understand how many would think me nuts for even considering an INTC. Thus, markets are created!

Thanks in advance to all on my thorny question.

Berney