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To: johnny boy who wrote (8910)	6/16/1998 12:18:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11555

I think the semis are in for more pain than gain through this summer. We have probably seen the worse of it already but may continue to trend down. Sometime before the 4th of July holiday I expect the techs to firm up and maybe even rally a bit. We should be through the pre-announcement warning period but still have a bad case of the Asian flu complicated by an earnings chill and general market jitters - altogether not a healthy short-term situation. so much was to be expected, even if a bit early. We are seeing a deflationary price spiral in many raw materials and commodities. This is usually excellent if coincident with modest growth. However, the poor dog Asian countries are now trying to did themselves out of massive debt while prices are plummeting and their currencies are terribly weak. Where a few weeks ago the consensus among most economists and market forecasters was that the fed would need to raise interest rates a notch by this winter, now the consensus has shifted to the fed lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy and help weaken the dollar and prop up the US and world economy. The boat has sprung a leak and we need to man the pumps. I think this period of troubles was a necessary adjustment. The semi equipment companies will continue to do poorly for most of the year and will lag as the chip stocks recover. Their woes are most directly tied to over-capitalization problems in Asia which will not be remedied completely by a resurgence of domestic semi companies, IMO. American companies for the most part are in good shape to ride though the storm unscathed and probably better off than before. We will see a return to more prosperous times and brighter moods - but maybe not until "blood is in the streets".

To: johnny boy who wrote (8910)	6/22/1998 10:21:00 AM
From: To_A_Million	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11555

jb, In your opinion, when is a capacity shortage most likely to hit? And why? I have not seen a consumer good that will drive commodity demand the way PCs did a few years back. And with the Asian economy making hourly trips to the outhouse, what brave new economic frontier will drive the demand? I have asked the Plywood Elvis Oracle, but still get no answers. It is maddening . . . . I am still waiting for my barber to tell me when to sell so I can get back into the market. Oh, and I will probably need some money as well;) s m y t h e