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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Earl who wrote (22700)	6/16/1998 8:40:00 AM
From: dwight vickers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Don, The normal news outlets won't help much when trying to analyze what's going on overseas. Well, anywhere for that matter. All they do is hit the peaks and valleys. When things quiet down, they stop reporting. But it never meant the crisis was over. Just simmering and developing. Getting ready for the next step. You could tell from reading this board that people thought it ended in January. The next bear market will be the same way. Everyone will keep buying the weakness. For awhile anyway. Dwight

To: Don Earl who wrote (22700)	6/16/1998 1:38:00 PM
From: EPS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Hi Don, Great call on NOVL. As you said it does look like it has a chance to break out for good..and short interest seems to be helping some..Boy, I would not like to be short NOVL today.. Regards Victor

To: Don Earl who wrote (22700)	6/17/1998 7:40:00 AM
From: Frederick Smart	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

BEARS STILL GROWL..... >>DOW down 208.01 --- NASDAQ down 29.43 --- NOVL even at 12 If Japan closes down tonight another 2% or worse, I wouldn't want to be long the market tomorrow. In fact I'm short ---- NOVL. On the theory that no stock can resist a market collapse on the rumor of a turnaround. >> >>Kind of kicking around a short play on NOVL. There's a possible 15 month long double top forming, but no confirmation. There wouldn't be anything to hold it down if it breaks out at 13. >> Its nice to see the bearishness come back so quickly with the latest Japan, Inc/Yen disclosures. Paul, I agree on the major significance of the Intel/Novell announcement today. With the entire world moving to the Internet, closed/proprietary systems everywhere will be blow to pieces. Gate's can't extend the monopoly model to NT/enterprise. The Global Network Tsunami is just too powerful for Gates to control. If Intel embraces Java in the same "open" way Schmidt has outlined, this would be a huge shift in the competitive landscape for companies that live, breath and die on the shifts in enterprise network technology. Why we haven't heard much about Java in the last 2-3 months? Intel and Novell planned it that way. MSFT's and HP's Java announcements fell very flat. Rather than preempting anything, their flags and intentions showed, too, their underlying weakness should Java actually succeed. In the wake of those announcements, too many declared Java DOA. A vacuum was created which another big dog or dogs could fill. If the announcement is what I think it is, Intel and Novell's timing could not be better. A thriving, expanding Java is against an explosion of interest in expanding legacy systems to the Global Network is the THE WORST one-two punch thing that could happen to MSFT. Intel has as much at stake as MSFT in this so they had to eventually choose sides. Novell has made it very clear they plan on making NW 5.0 an open environment that will play into Java's strengths, both as a Java development platform and as the fastest application lauching pad for Java apps in the enterprise. If Intel affirms this vision today the effect will be explosive. Switching to an entirely different subject - and not one we should necessarily depend upon to save Novell- ....but its my guess that the DOJ has more evidence against MSFT behind the NT rollout wave than they ever did with IE leading to Win98. This will be overwhealmingly negative for MSFT. IE strongarming has been childsplay compared the the NTstrongarming going on over the last 2+ years. Paul and Don, your timing on shorting or thinking of shorting Novell could not have been worse. Time to give up on Joe's ghost yet??? If you do then I will have to shift my focus for I still think the sentiment regarding Novell is negatively juiced for a continuation of this rally. We should blast through $13 today. Good luck!