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To: Stephen B. Temple who wrote (34879)6/16/1998 9:50:00 AM
From: Mark Jenkins  Respond to of 41046
 
Internet telephone success set to wound incumbents

Reuters Story - June 16, 1998 09:36

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By Neil Winton, Science and Technology Correspondent
LONDON, June 16 (Reuters) - Making telephone calls over the
Internet is getting cheaper and easier, and will soon provide
profit-threatening competition to established big operators, a
report published on Tuesday said.
According to the report from Cambridge-based
telecommunications strategy consultancy Analysys, telephone
business across the Internet will take 36 percent of the
international call market by 2003.
Other conclusions from the report included -
- Internet telephone traffic will overtake fixed network
traffic by 2000.
- Prices of Internet and fixed networks should converge
within three to five years.
- Low costs and an unregulated market are attracting new
entrants.
- Core revenues and profits of big telephone operators are
at risk.
But according to Philip Lakelin of Analysys, big operators
like AT&T of the U.S., Deutsche Telekom AG ,
British Telecommunications Plc and France Telecom SA
are not standing idly by as their traditional markets
are attacked.
The first reaction of big operators in the U.S. to upstart
Internet telephone providers was to seek to ban them.
The U.S. Federal Communications Commission wouldn't go along
with that, so they are gearing up the technology to fire back at
the appropriate moment, according to Lakelin, a co-author of the
report.
"Companies like Deutsche Telekom, France Telecom and BT
won't be rolling out Internet telephony technology in their
domestic markets until they have to. Currently they're trialing,
keeping up with technological developments, then they will
roll-out to face the competition," Lakelin told Reuters in an
interview.
"Many of them are already in it. ATT in particular is
starting in its home market, and Asia Pacific. Deutsche Telekom
with its 21 percent stake in VocalTec (Communications Ltd
) is already experimenting with new services, and
Sonera of Finland, and Sprint (Corp ) in the U.S.,"
Lakelin said.
Internet telephony has moved quickly from the limited and
arcane ability to manipulate a personal computer to transmit
phone calls to other personal computers, to an efficient and
cheap competitor to traditional fixed phones.
Now internet telephone providers can offer service to people
who don't even own personal computers.
<RSL Communications Ltd> announced in April that its Delta
Three Inc subsidiary would expand into Europe, where high prices
make cheaper telephone calls highly attractive.
Delta Three offers subscribers a pre-paid card. The user
dials Delta and enters a code. The call is dialled from a
regular telephone which connects to a local Internet service
provider using Internet telephony pioneer VocalTec's software.
The service provider converts the voice into digital data
packets which are sent across the world to the nearest Internet
service provider to the destination city. The digital data is
then converted back to analog voice and is delivered by the
local phone network.
According to Delta, this can mean significant cost savings.
The standard cost of a call from the U.S. to Germany costs
$1.36, but this is slashed to between 10 cents to 45 cents by
the Internet phone.
Analysys' Lakelin admits that quality of Internet telephony
is not as high as for fixed lines.
"The success depends on how much operators can convince
users that the quality loss is acceptable compared with the
price cuts offered," he said.
" At least for the next two years there will a quality gap.
But with mobile phones, people were willing to accept higher
prices for mobility. There's no reason why they won't accept
this compromise," Lakelin said.
High cost Europe presents a tasty market.
"For a very short time Europe presents an attractive market.
But prices in Europe are falling because of deregulation, so the
opportunity isn't going to last for a very long time. Three to
five years at the most," Lakelin said.