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To: LLCF who wrote (1679)	6/16/1998 2:11:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2946

David, I hope it's many years. <g> But I don't have the expertise to know. Perhaps Katherine Derbyshire (she posts on General Lithography thread, as well as a small number of others) might be able to enlighten us. If the Micrascan's unique optics are an advantage for 'scanning' then the lead and patent protection could be substantial. If it's "merely" a matter of controlling the moving parts to nanometer tolerances, then I'd guess it's much easier for a competitor to reproduce SVGI's achievement than it was to make the breakthrough in the first place. My guess is that it'll be 6-18 months before we're presented with a definitive answer. Ian. Any idea how big SVGI's lead is?

To: LLCF who wrote (1679)	6/17/1998 10:31:00 AM
From: David Aegis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2946

Re: SVGL's lead. My two cents. It is my (layman's) understanding that the competition (ASMLF, Canon, Nikon) is waiting for Cymer to do a laser upgrade. SVGL's optics are currently an advantage, since SVG has the only production proven scanner using Cymer's current generation laser. My notes are that the next generation laser is due out this Fall. With prototyping, build lead times and qualification, I am guessing SVGL still has about a 12-18 month lead. The Cymer thread is a good source of information on this topic. The question then, in my mind, is whether the up cycle kicks in within that time frame, or whether competition catches up first. If competition catches up, then we have to hope that demand is strong enough to absorb everyone's capacity and that SVGL can resolve its cycle time woes. I also remain cautiously optimistic about the Thermco and Track divisions. I do not think they will just dry up and blow away. Remember when the key question about SVG was whether they could ramp Micrascans fast enough...? <sigh> --David