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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EPS who wrote (22705)	6/16/1998 1:36:00 PM
From: Spartex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Victor: They are really pulling the ripcord on NOVL today. Looks like my guess on 13+ this week will come despite the heaviness of Asia still weighing down the indexes. Apparently the street is looking for companies with a good story, and NOVL fits that picture very well. Regards, QuadK

To: EPS who wrote (22705)	6/16/1998 5:09:00 PM
From: dwight vickers	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 42771

(OFF TOPIC!) Interesting that Capitalism is such a misunderstood, yet over analyzed system, that some are ready to present inflation as a cure for Japans ills. I even remember Clinton chastising business in this country that they needed to emulate the Germans. Thank God they were smart enough to ignore him. I say there is some truth in all of the ideas in that piece. But they are basically a search for answers. My take is that Capitalism is best explained by the noted New York economist, Rosanne Rosanadanna. "If it isn't one thing, it's another". (Using her accent, of course) Seriously, I'm saying that it doesn't matter what mistakes governments make, or what an excellent job they do of economic stewardship. Recession/depression is part of the cycle. You cannot have permanent prosperity. The excesses have to be flushed out of the system. The longer the bureaucrats attempt to keep the good times rolling with financial manipulation, the worse the correction process will be. Every cycle is different, precisely because the powers that be only know the lessons of the prior cycle, maybe two. Most other lessons have been forgotten. We need to go back in time to study earlier cycles to find similar circumstances that may explain todays problems and our future. My guess for the US is that we're going to pay the price for Alan Greenspan not tightening liquidity in 1994, even though he raised interest rates. He kept the system flush with cash. Combine that with the low interest rates that preceded, and we didn't get the normal Presidential Cycle flush that happens in the early part of Presidential terms. Too much liquidity with no subsequent belt tightening kept our economy in the "party on" mode. Way too much capacity was brought on line, way too many strip malls were built, and way too many specialty coffees were poured at Starbucks. Then the crowning blow. Too many Beanie Baby factories were built. Again seriously, eventually the system flushes itself. Even if Greenspan walked the tightrope and did everything right, Capitalism isn't a system that can create eternal prosperity. No system has ever allowed that. The bad investments have to be regretted at some point. Case in point of course, is Asia. But it happens everywhere. When the problems are exacerbated by governmental mistakes as in Japan, you get extended, and potentially crushing down cycles. Let them deregulate and cut taxes and they'll cure 99% of their problems. There may still be pain, but long term will be the gain. And lets not lose sight of the fact that, as reported in Barrons a couple of weeks ago, the 1929 crash and depression worldwide was preceded by the 2nd largest economy in the world (Germany, at that time) collapsing. After never recovering from the 1920-21 recession. Interesting parallel? Who knows? Dwight