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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (4583)	6/16/1998 2:27:00 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Here's an interesting opinion of what the recovery in Asia is looking like to the economist, Paul Erdman. I never heard of a "L" shape recovery before. :) ******************************** Asia has now gone to 'L' By Paul E. Erdman SAN FRANCISCO- June 16 -- The Asian crisis was triggered last July by the bursting of the real estate bubble in Thailand, and the ensuing collapse of the national currency, the baht. As the malaise spread, it has been chiefly financial events that the world has been tracking: the breakdown of currencies, falling stock markets, IMF financial aid packages, the rescheduling of commercial bank lending to head off bank failures. We have now entered Stage II. Economic events are moving to the fore. At least five Asian economies are contracting: South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Hong Kong and Japan. Several are experiencing record unemployment. Japan is suffering from outright deflation. Indonesia is experiencing both recession and borderline hyperinflation. So the Great Asian Recession has arrived. V, then U & now L** Asia Week magazine has got it right in its current issue. It points out that at first the pundits were talking about a V-shaped recovery: Asia's markets and real economies would plummet to the depths and then rise back up just as swiftly. Subsequently it was thought that Asia would stay down for a spell and only climb back up slowly in a "U." Now, nearly a year into the crisis, the situation is looking more and more like an open-ended "L." Thus the renewed fall of oil prices (exacerbated by the possibility that sanctions on Iraq will be lifted). Thus the growing uncertainties on Wall Street concerning how this longer-term outlook for Asia will affect US corporate profits. As our trade deficit balloons to immense proportions in the second half of this year, these uncertainties are bound to grow.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (4583)	6/16/1998 2:35:00 PM
From: Jack Clarke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

>>OFF TOPIC<< Zeev, stating that I am just a farmer that just fell from a turnips truck. It's nice to know the background of your "turnip" allusion. I knew there had to be a story behind it! Your anecdote reminds me of a rural southern (US) expression which you may or not appreciate, depending upon how you visualize it and the appropriate accent. It could be translated roughly as: "I'm not as dumb as I seem." I may have come in on a watermelon truck, but I didn't pick 'em." Do you still see DOW 8200 as a bottom? Best, Jack