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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken Salaets who wrote (10120)	6/16/1998 6:44:00 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Ken, There is one, and only one, good way of dealing with Y2K. It involves massive testing, and in many cases massive code re-writes. It's labor intensive and particularly nasty. Some system tools can help automate the testing, or do an automated "first pass" on the software to identify problem areas. This cuts 0 to 25% off the cost of solving the problem, depending on how complex the issues are. For embedded systems, for example, no automated system is really going to solve anything. You've got to exhaustively debug the firmware and replace it if necessary. For relatively straightforward COBOL code it could be relatively simple. Everything else is somewhere in between. There's a common saying in data processing that "whoever buys a magic bullet, usually bites the bullet." Y2K companies are no different from any of the other systems integrators and other consulting firms in that regard. They all claim to have some unique grasp on the problem which is usually only a slightly different flavor of whatever other people are doing. They all charge an arm and a leg for their services. But unlike traditional systems integrators, these guys have a pretty definite expiration date for the marketability of their expertise. For the most part, that date has past. If you're not dealing with the problem already, you're too late. Obviously they may continue to run for a while on the hype, and on latecomers hope for a magic solution at any price. But those pipe-dreams collapse definitively in 563 days. These companies are not good investments for anybody besides short-term traders hoping to find a greater fool. mg

To: Ken Salaets who wrote (10120)	6/16/1998 6:46:00 PM
From: dumbmoney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Ken, quite a few of us are engineers and use our own knowledge to evaluate company claims. What is going on is that a lot of investors want to buy a Y2K "pure play", and some unscrupulous promoter types are filling the demand. Buyer beware.