Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : CyberGuard Corp. (CYBG) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stephen allen who wrote (1692)	6/17/1998 12:36:00 PM
From: airborn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2616

Here is a extremely good posting on the Yahoo thread, it really say's a lot: I hope incognitodude does not mind my sending it over here! A message for all interested in CYBG incognitodude (ha!/M/everywhere) Jun 16 1998 6:47PM EDT To everyone, I like reading this board and find that most of the posts are informative and insightful... (both here and on SI) But recently it has become somewhat of a verbal match between Bill and the longs... So in the interest of informed debate, here is a fairly objective take on CYBG and some topics (questions) for this board to discuss (amongst yourself and with CYBG management): 1. Bill should know better than to call someone a fraud and con artist, you are liable for what you post. Unless of course he has evidence to back his claims. 2. The only reason this stock traded above 12 (IMHO) was due to takeover speculation and daytrading. The recent hit can most likely be attributed to increased competitive pressures (from larger firms) and the downturn in the network security stocks. 3. There are many companies doing digital certification and authentication. Ask yourselves what CYBG's competitive advantages are... and how will the company leverage them to succeed. 4. I will state once again that you need to take step from the technology and look at how the company's operating model works. When do they expect to be profitable and how quickly should earnings grow. 4 (a). Unprofitability is often overlooked in (tech) companies where revenue growth is sufficient to warrent looking past the next couple quarters. Is this the case for CYBG? 4 (b) How does CYBG's solution stack up against competition (price/performance)? How is the product being marketing? What is CYBG's distribution channel like? Their partnerships and alliances? Resellers? How aggressive is the company in chasing down market share? Is the technical prowess of their product enough to garner new customers? What kind of revenue growth do you expect? 4 (c) What are the prospects (long-term) for tradewave? What do you expect the contributions to be to revenue and earnings? Who is the competition in this arena? What are the current trends in VPN's (VPI), EDI... e-commerce? What does their product mix look like? What will it look like in a year? What will the effect be on margins? 4 (d) Does the tech company with good product (or even the best) always succeed? 5. If shorts drive the stock price down, will the momentum players and traders return? What is the short interest now, and how high could it be? What happens when shorts cover? Will Bill turn long if the stock hits low single digits as he is recommending to the shorts? What percentage of the float is traded daily? How much of this can be attributed to short-term players? 6. Is CYBG still a potential takeover target? If so, at what price? By whom? If not, can they compete with the larger "one stop shops" doing network security? ... Are others in the industry feeling the competitive pressures as well? 7. Given the recent increase in investor recognition of CYBG, the volatility, the large daily volume and the product reviews, is "low single digits" really reasonable? (ie will speculation on the upside potential keep it from going lower?) 8. Will Bill Wexler ever come up with anything original or informative? or will he keep reposting the same crap over and over and over and over..... ? 9. Is it worth for all you to get together and start purchasing shares en masse just to make that putz sweat and then hold and wait for him to cover. ;-) - That is all for now. Good luck to everyone. I hope some of this helps in your analysis. -G