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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Colby who wrote (9730)	6/16/1998 7:11:00 PM
From: mc	Respond to of 23519

I was just thinking about how the stock tanked when it was announced there would be production shortfalls due to the cannibalization of the old plant to move equipment to the new plant. What would have happened if they had left the old equipment producing and gone into the new plant with entirely new equipment? 1. FDA approval would take longer - at least it should because the reason for moving the old equipment was to supposedly speed up FDA approval. 2. Vivus would be producing a much higher number of saleable goods. 3. The reason for the delay in large scale launch overseas by Astra and Jansen is due to the fact that they are waiting for the new plant to open so that there is sufficient product to meet demand. If they had the old plant running at higher capacity, maybe some of these launches would have occurred which would allow Vivus to make more sales. 4. As we know, the efficiency of the old plant is not good enough to make a profit when selling to the overseas distributors. That being the case and assuming number three is ok Vivus would be selling much more product and losing much more money than they are now and for a longer period of time (see #1 for why the longer time frame). 5. We were all anticipating the MUSE getting initially hammered by Viagra anyway so the lack of a domestic market is occurring at the best possible time Vivus. 6. While all of this may be some huge cosmic fluke, with everything taken into consideration, maybe (just maybe) even with all the cards on the table and knowing what would happen (as we do now in hindsight) Vivus would have chosen to play their cards just as they have. It just would have looked like they knew what they were doing instead of this directionless glassy-eyed wandering that has been happening. While they certainly took a hit to credibility, as far as production and sales go things probably worked out to the best possible outcome. Good luck all, Gary